The 3 guys who made the "Catalonia Affair" a giant mistake

2017 has seen one of the worst and unreasonable political crisis in Europe since over 20 years: the Catalonia claim of independence.

We have seen the tension before and during the referendum, we have seen the dispute between Rajoy and Puigdemont, the declaration of Independence, the suspension of Catalonia autonomy and the new elections, that showed just yesterday how people are divided. What a mess!

This crisis has been managed badly from all the parties, especially from 3 persons, that have showed a very low political leadership and lack of vision.

First of the list Mariano Rajoy. If you are at the head of the Government of such a big and important Country like Spain, you cannot act like Independentists do not exist. If Catalonia government is issuing a will of independence that brings to a referendum, you really cannot ignore them. Furthermore, what happened during the referendum with the police has convinced many people to vote for going out from Spain. Instead of going for dialogue, Rajoy decided to increase the tension adopting a very short-sighet perspective.

The second responsible of this chaos is Carles Puigdemont. How can you lead a strategic region like Catalonia and arrive to a referendum for an independence that nobody (European Union first) would never accept? Politics is first of all being realistic, and he hasn't be at all.

Third in the list, the King Felipe VI. Just after the referendum, he had the chance to bring stability back in Spain and to represent also the Catalans that peacefully went to vote for the independence. He could be the warrant of the Constitution and of the rights of all of his citizens. He decided for the opposite way attacking Catalonia Independentist, not following - for instance - the King of another country strongly divided like Belgium.

3 weak leaders, huge mistakes and one certainty after the referendum: "Catalonia Affair" is far to end.

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3 possible scenarios after the Catalan Elections

In Catalonia the new Parliament is going to be led by the Independentists. This can bring important consequences in Spain and in Europe.

We can see at least three different scenarios. 

First. The win of the Independents can start a democratic process for the independence of Catalonia. This could create a domino effect in other Countries, like in Scotland or Belgium. The tensions could increase and new referendum could take place in those countries. 

Second. Madrid imposes its power and no changes will be done in the relation with Catalonia. This could create a very fluid and nervous situation. The unilateral declaration of independence of Barcelona could be an unexpected outcome. And after that, the unpredictable reaction of the Central Government.

Third, the most probable, the new strong power of the Independentists could reasonably bring to a new Constitution with a real federalism. This option could preserve the unity of the State giving, at the same time, an answer to the request of autonomy by Catalonia.

Above all, we have to consider that the 47,7% of votes for the independence is not the majority. This means that the will to leave Spain is not prevalent in Catalonia. And this is a date, not an opinion.

Considering all, a new Federal Constitution seems the best solution possible.

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The referendum in Scotland: the end of the State?

On Thursday 18th September 2014 it will take please the referendum for the Independence of Scotland. The 9th of November it is planned a similar referendum in Cataluña.

Scotland 2014

From some electoral polls, it seems that in Scotland there is a majority for the Independence (51% vs 49%) and the attention of the media is focused on the possible scenarios after the vote.

States with a long history as Spain and United Kingdom, but also Italy and Belgium, are deeply touched by internal conflicts. What's happening? Is it really coming the end of the State created five centuries ago?

It is hard to give an answer, but it seems clear that two forces are eroding the authority of the States. The first one, is the globalization. This phenomenon has broken the borders, creating communities, facilitating transnational business, mixing the cultures. The dynamics born by the globalization cannot be controlled by the State, that actually is eluded. The second element to consider is the rebirth of regionalisms. This could be also seen as an answer to the globalization and the loosing of local traditions.  

The economic crisis and European Union have further weakened the State, unable to solve the problems of the population and constantly losing its power. 

It seems that we are crossing a period with too many social and economical problems, and that the State, the National Governments cannot face them anymore, because the origins and maybe also the solutions are outside their borders. Moreover, it is probably easier for a region to become autonomous and staying under the umbrella of the European Union. 

Regional movement are developing everywhere. But it seems that in Scotland we are assisting to a fundamental moment, not just for the history on United Kingdom.

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