Hungarian Elections: which potential scenarios after the Fidesz victory?

At the national elections of the 6^th of April Hungary has confirmed Fidesz - the Hungarian Civic Alliance Party - and its leader and prime minister Viktor Orbán as main political force.

The result has not been a surprise, Fidesz has got the 44% of votes. Even if it has lost 600 thousands of votes in comparison with the elections of 2010, Orbán party will get 133 seats out of 199 total of the Parliament, thanks to the new and contested electoral law wanted by Fidesz itself.  It is alarming the growth of the xenophobic party Jobbik, that has got the 21,4% of votes, third force of the new Parliament of Budapest, just behind the center-left with the 25% of votes.

Hungarian Parliament in Budapest

Orbán is a really enigmatic figure in Hungary. He is considered populist, authoritarian and eurosceptic, but he growth up in a anti-communist and liberal movement. During his first premiership (1998 – 2002), Orbán started important liberalizations in Hungary, with good results in economy (drop of inflation and growth of GDP).

In the last four years, instead, he got modest economical results.  Moreover, he has been strongly contested for a series of authoritarian laws, with limitation of media freedom, a general homophobic attitude and the occupation of important key roles in some guarantee authorities by people close the Prime Minister.

What can happen now? It is hard to say.

Viktor Orbán has been able to win because of his ability to foster the fear of Hungarians towards the crisis and towards Europe.

The European elections are imminent: it seems that the eurosceptic forces will take advantage from the general anti-Eu feeling present in several Countries. 

Orbán can take two directions. The first is following the xenophobic and anti-european issues: the risk is giving more space to forces like Jobbik and, at the same time, going away from the European Union. The second is to realign himself and his Government closer to the positions of Brussels, that could be an important support against the populist and xenophobic drift as in Hungary as in other Countries.  We will see soon. 

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Behind the F1 Gp of Bahrain: a Country in revolt

The 10^th edition of the F1 Gran Prix of Bahrain has ended few hours ago. The media attention has been focused on the sportive event, that generates millions of dollars each year. But the internal situation of the Country has been completely clouded.

The race was cancelled only in 2011, when the revolts of the population began. But in the last years the Bahrain International Circuit seemed like a happy island, far from the divisions present in the Country.

But what is the current situation in Bahrain?

First of all, it’s is important to keep in mind few data about the Kingdom of Bahrain. It is a small archipelago in the Persian Gulf with a population of 1.300.000 habitants and a GDP per capita of around 28600 $, 34^th in the International Monetary Fund classification of the richest Countries in the world.

Bahrain was part of the British colonialist empire till 1971, when it reached the independence. Now it is under the kingdom of Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, last exponent of the Sunni family of al-Khalifa, linked to the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia.

The conflicts began in 2011 after the Arab Spring. The origin of the revolt is religious. In fact, even if the 70% of the population is Shiite, King Hamad and the ruling class of the Country is Sunni. Shiites, that don’t have access to the highest positions in the State, ask the transformation of Bahrain in a Constitutional Monarchy, with the possibility of electing a democratic Parliament and with the recognition of their rights.  

The revolt didn’t stop since four years and the reaction has been reflected in  tortures, rapes and deaths. The Monarchy has the support of US that want to maintain a strong relation with this strategic Country, situated between the Shiite Iran and the Sunni Saudi Arabia.  it is not a coincidence that Bahrain hosts the V fleet of the US Navy.

Finally, can geopolitical and economical interests hide social conflicts? Apparently yes. Therefore, “The show must goes on”. But till when? 

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Is it really useful studying French?

It has been recently published on the New York Times the news that French Government wants to strengthen the French language programs in the United States. It seems that this purpose has regenerated a debate in US about the importance of studying French at school as first foreign language.

This is an interesting topic also in Europe. If someone suggests stopping pretending that French is an important language, because it is not an international language anymore, some others pointed out that it is still useful, because used by millions of people around the world.

What is the truth? Is this language really important?

To answer, we have to consider two elements: the number of people who effectively speaks French and the economic and political power of the Countries where they live.

On the basis of a research of KryssTal, French is spoken by 200 millions of people and it is the 9^th most spoken language in the World. Following the top 10 list:

Mandarin (1.1 billion)

English (1 billion)

Spanish (500 million)

Hindi (490 million)

Russian (277 million)

Arabic (452 million)

Portuguese (240 million)

Bengali (215 million)

French (200 million)

Malay-Indonesian (175 million)

Actually the Government of Paris estimates that around 300 million of people speak French. 

The second element to consider is that, as the result of the second largest colonial Empire of history, French is spoken outside France in Belgium, Canada, in many states of North and Central Africa and in some part of Indochina. It is also an official language in Switzerland and in the Italian region of Valle d’Aosta, and in many international organizations such as United Nations, NATO, FIFA, FIA, International Red Cross and WTO.

From the economic point of view, French is the third most spoken language in Europe, the richest area in the world. Many of the francophone Countries mentioned above are political and economical powerful.

Finally, in a world “economics oriented”, French is a good choice. It is spoken across all the five Continents and represents an access key for important and rich markets. Moreover, the worth of French is consolidated by the political, economical and also cultural influence of France, the fifth world economic power. But it is also true that other languages, such as Mandarin, Spanish, Portuguese, Russian or Hindi, are becoming more and more important, and could represent a better alternative to French in the future.

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Do you have a problem with your Public Debt? Follow Belgium

Belgium is a very strange Country. Eleven millions of habitants live in a territory of 11 thousands km2, organized in three Regions and three Communities, with three official languages, Flemish, French and German.

Atomium - The symbol of Brussels

The internal contrast between Flanders, the richest part of the Country and Wallonia has blocked the political and institutional life in the last years. In 2011 Belgium reached a new world record regarding the absence of an official government: in fact, after the election of June 2010, the political forces couldn’t get an agreement to create a new government.

For 18 months Belgium was led by a caretaker government, beating the previous record held by Iraq. Anyway, even with limited budget, the government performed well and the economy of the Country could have an incredible +2% of growth in 2010-11.

But Belgium could shock us also with another miracle. In 1993 its public debt was 138% of GDP: Belgium was the Country with the highest debt in EU. Fourteen years later, in 2007, the debt reached the impressive number of 84%. Even if in the last years the debt increased, it didn’t exceed the limit of 100%.

How was it possible?

First, a fiscal reform has been implemented. The aim has been the simplification of the taxation and the increase of the fiscal rates. Second, all the reforms put in practice from the Government have been realized without any additional cost for the public balance. More income and a fix amount of expenses have brought a surplus in the state balance allowing a stable decrease of the debt.

Of course this is not a result reachable from every Country. Belgium is located in one of the richest area in the world and it could also take benefit from its German neighbor. But it is a symbol of pride for such a complex Country, that has to face many internal contrasts.  

To understand more about this strange and interesting Country, I advise you to watch this funny video – Belgium for dummies @  http://youtu.be/QlwHotpl9DA. 

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