A new story?

Syriza Logo

Greece is a quite small Country: 11 million of people, a GDP of 180 billion Euro (11th in Eu), a public debt around 180% of GDP and an unemployment rate of 26% (the highest in Europe).

Can a Country depressed by years of austerity and weakened by social tensions, change the history of a Continent? After the elections of the 25th January, maybe yes.

The win of Syriza must be seen in two different perspectives. From the interior side, it is the first time in Greek recent history that a "third party" becomes the main political force beating PSOK and Nea Dimokratia. If the new Prime Minister Tsipras will be brave enough, he will be able to struggle with the corruption, result of a spoiled political system managed for decades by two parties and few families. 

From the external side, the Greek elections are the first (and probably not the last) in Europe that give power to an anti-austerity Party. This means that Eu (and Germany) will have to dialogue with Tsipras and this time it will be forced to listen his opinions. Even if it is too early to understand which will be the real effects of this situation in the future European economic policies, it is defineitely represents something new and positive.

The first public act of Tsipras has surprised the public opinion: the alliance with ANEL, the right and xenophobe Party. But it was probably the only available solution : even if the two new allies are ideologically very far, they are both against the austerity and this explains why To Potami (the new center-left political Party) wasn't suitable to support Tsipras Government for its softer position towards Troika.

Something is changing in Europe: the ECB has adopted a new position to fight the crisis and it seems that Germany is finally understanding the austerity is not a doable way anymore. At the political level, Paris and Rome are waiting to collaborate with Tsipras and press Berlin for less rigidity. Over all, another anti-austerity force, Podemos, could win the next elections in Spain. 

Let's be optimistic about the rest of the year.

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Is ECB the strongest opponent to austerity?

The European Central Bank has chosen the way of a "quantitative easing" to stop the crisis and push the growth. 

The announcement, made by the President Mario Draghi, has been received successfully by the investors and by the most part of the European Countries, except for Germany and the block of Nordics.

The general aim of this operation is that, buying 60 billion Euros of public debt per month, ECB could reduce the value of Euro, facilitating the export and also the access to the bank credit. This decision should increase the inflation tax and bring benefits to all the economy.


The Us Federal Reserve adopted this decision already in 2008, why in Europe did we have to wait till now?

The answer is quite obvious: the resistance of Germany. From Berlin, the  austerity and the internal reforms were the ways to reduce the National debts and improve their economies, without considering the social  (and then also political) effects.

That is why the media reaction to the decision of the ECB has not been positive in Germany. At the opposite, in the rest of Europe the operation has been considered necessary and with positive effects for everybody.

It is impossible to predict which will be the real effect of this decision. But we can draw two considerations. First, this choise is the first wide and robust action of the ECB, as indepent Istitution of the European framework. Second, the economic policy adoped till yesterday must be dismessed because it didn't work.

Euro can be an advantage just if the economic policy can represents and help all the Countries. It is impossible to be under a unique currency and adopting only the German perspective. In the last years we have seen the contraposition between Berlin and the rest of Europe. It seemed that Angela Merkel imposed her strategy to exit from the crisis. But today something is changing: the elctions in Greece and Spain could modify the political scenario in Europe. Over all Mario Draghi won a match against the austerity and maybe he represents the strongest opponent to Germany in the European arena.

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Podemos?

Few days ago some electoral polls have given Podemos, the party founded at the beginning of 2014 and born by the Indignados movement, the 28% of voting intentions. It has become the first party in Spain: PSOE should get the 20% and the PP 26%.

There is a similar situation in Greece, where Syriza is accredited of 31% of votes and could win the incoming political election.

But what would it mean if an anti-austerity force could win the elections in one of the most important European Countries?

In the last years, many protest movements became a Party and could get a lot of votes. In Italy, one of the biggest and weakest economy of Europe, the "Movimento 5 Stelle" leaded by a former comedian, got an extraordinary success in the general elections of 2013 (second Party with 25% votes).  Even with strong and supported ideas to change the system, the movement has not been really able to transform itself in a real Party, a essential condition to convert ideas in laws.

In Spain, in a post-electoral scenario with three main and opposed forces, it is possible to imagine an alliance between Socialist and Moderates in a solidarity government. But the importance of Podemos as first party could bring their leaders to be central in the future reforms.

One thing is sure: the raise of those forces cannot be considered just a signal, but a deep transformation of the European electorate. We are just waiting a consequent transformation at the political level too.

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Freedom and Tolerance

What happened few days ago in Paris has shocked everyone.

An attack to a newspaper and twelve people killed in the heart of the French Capital is something unexpected and unbelievable.

What happens? And over all: what is going to happen in the next months?

I want to expose just two short considerations.

First: freedom of speech, freedom of press and the right to satire don't have to be called in discussion. Those are pillars of our society and that is why we have to protect them even if fear and hate are going to raise.

Second: that massacre has not been done in name of Islam, but on the basis of a fanaticism dangerous for everybody. Muslims are around 8% of the population in Europe: they go to school, they work, they try to live a normal life as everybody else. The perception of Europeans is completely wrong. As presented by The Economist in a study realized by Ipsos.

The attack to Charlie Hebdo could increase the hostility against Muslim Community in every Country. It is needed an action at a European level to avoid it. At the same time, something must be done to fight the fanaticism. 

Few days ago the fanatic group of Boko Haram slaughtered two thousand people in the north of Nigeria. If it happens far from us, it doesn't mean we don't have to care about it.

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