Can Greeks already welcome a Happy New Year?

The time has finally come in Athens. The impossibility to elect the President of the Republic by the Hellenic Parliament has caused the announcement of new elections in January 2015. 

Syriza is considered the winner of the next elections and many observers have written about the possible problems of a government leaded by Alexis Tsipras, who promises a renegotiation of the Memorandum with the Troika.

The Hellenic Parliament in Athens

Europe is scared by the result of the elections. But why?

There are two considerations to do. First, even if Syryza can win the elections, it is not automatic that Tsipras will be also able to create a government. It seems that the other parties are more inclined to keep the Memorandum than having contrasts with European Union and, especially, with Germany. On the other hand, it is improbable that Greece will be able to break the Memorandum or exit from Euro. Brussels and Berlin can keep quiet.

Second observation: as citizens of European Union, can we be satisfied about the management of the crisis in Greece as well as in the rest of Europe? The economic situation is not better than 5 years ago in Athens, the salaries are much lower, the unemployment is the highest in Europe. 

What can we expect from 2015? We can just hope that something will really change: we need a new vision of Europe, new ideas of how to solve the economic and social problems that are killing our generation in favor of few people that have the power and the privileges.

What Greece and Greeks are paying for the crisis is a shame for us. It is a shame for Brussels, as well as for Berlin and Paris.

After the announcement of new elections, Tsipras said that Greeks can already welcome a "Happy new year". Let's hope that it will be a real NEW year and not just the continuation of a sad and demoralizing past.

Happy 2015!

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Are Turkish events a huge failure of European Union?

What's happening in Turkey?

Few days ago two heads of police and at least 24 journalists have been arrested in 13 different cities. The Director of the newspaper Zaman, Ekrem Dumanli, and the Director of the broadcasting Samanyolu, Hidayet Karaca have been also included in the list.

It seems that those events are the result of an internal war inside the right wing of the Turkish politics. In particular, a contraposition between Endogan, President of Turkey and leader of AKP and Muhammed Fethullah Gülen, leader of an Islamic movement and considered by Erdogan author of the corruption scandal of the last year that deeply touched AKP.

Protests at the Headquarter of Zaman, in Ankara

Turkey is the country with the highest number of journalists in prisons in the World: 40 journalist, against 35 in Iran, 32 in China, 22 in Eritrea and 18 in Vietnam, following the report of the Committee to protect journalists.

European Union condemned the arrests, conflicting the freedom of press, one of the fundamental value of democracy and of Eu itself. But which are the responsibilities of Eu in the authoritative deviation of Turkey?

There are two main points of view presented in these days. Someone is pointing out how Turkey is not at all "aligned" to the European values and so it is not possible imagine an accession to Eu, now and never. Some others see the current situation as the consequence of a not-choice of the European Institutions about the adhesion of Turkey. 

It is clear that Europe didn't want a powerful Turkey inside their institutions. If Ankara have had entered in the Eu, it would have been the second most populated Country after Germany and the first military force, modifying the fragile balance that is still allowing the existence of the Union itself. 

Even if Europe didn't want a Turkey inside, would it have been possible a stronger relationship with Ankara? Would it have been possible to help the democratization of Turkey and therefore the  stabilization of all the area, where Ankara plays a central role?

But Brussels adopted another positions, well synthesized from the cartoon below, published in 2004 (but always current) by the International Herald Tribune.  A Turkish couple wants to enter in the Eu door and someone on the top of the wall says: "If I open the door, do you promise me not to enter?".

Source: International Herald Tribune (2004)

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Christmas Markets: a multi-million business

Nowadays it is a tradition: when Christmas is coming, also the Christmas Markets  are opened in many Cities. Originated in the German-speaking part of Europe, this tradition finds its roots in the late Middle Age: the first one was created in Dresden in 1434. 

One of the most beautiful Christmas Market - Vienna (Austria)

Even if the most beautiful Christmas Markets are located in Germany and Austria, they are spread in many different places. We can find them in Naples, as well as in Madrid and in Edinburgh, there are also markets opened in US and Canada, mainly on the idea of some German immigrants. Even in Japan there are Christmas Markets, in Osaka and Sapporo.

The diffusion of these markets is easily understandable: they are an incredible touristic attraction and a very good business. 

But which is exactly the value of this business? 

Obviously it is difficult to estimate it, considering that touches various Countries.
I found and interesting research made by JFC about the phenomenon of Christmas Markets in Italy.

The amount of this business is around 766 million Euro per year: 284 directly from the trade, and the rest from restaurants, hotels and shops. The most attractive markets are located in the region of Trentino - Alto Adige, near the border with Austria. But there are about 556 in Italy, that can last from just one to 72 days and that will host more than 12 million visitors.

The main products sold are decorations and groceries. Interesting also to point out that Italians like those markets for the atmosphere, for the traditional food and also the entertainment through concerts, exhibitions, and fireworks.

In conclusion, those markets give a positive effect to the economy and generate a business that, at least in Italy, represents about 8% of the total expence made for Christmas (about 9 billion Euro). It is also a good occasion to rediscover local traditions.

So...long live Christmas Markets!

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Reportage from Bangalore: plus and minus of an incredible growth

In October I had the opportunity to spend three weeks in India. I stayed in Bangalore, the capital of the State of Karnataka. With a population of 8.5 millions, Bangalore is the fourth largest metropolitan area in India, after Mumbai, Delhi and Chennai and it is the second fastest growing major metropolis after Surat.

Kempfort Shiva - Bangalore

Above all, Bangalore is the "Silicon Valley of India". It represents  the hub for many IT Companies: for instance, the Headquarters of Infosys and Wipro, the third and fourth largest software Indian Companies are located there. Bangalore also hosts Business and Technologic Outsourcing Centers of many corporations such as ABB, Boeing, Google, Hp, IBM, Nokia and Philips. This makes Bangalore the first outsourcing destination in the World according to Tholons Top 100 Outsourcing Destinations.

A new business center

It is useful to point out that Bangalore has always represented one of the most high-tech city of the region: for instance, it has been one of the first city in Asia to have electricity.

The economic growth of the last ten years has deeply touched this city. With $83 Billion per year and an annual growth of 10%, this metropolis is currently the fourth contributor of the Indian GDP after Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata.

Which are the most significant outcomes of this incredible growth?

The economic development has attracted people from different parts of India for the opportunities to easily get a job. The immigration has completely changed Bangalore: more buildings have been erected, taking away green spaces; moreover, almost everybody had been able to buy a personal vehicle so traffic and pollution became the first evident effect of the growth. In fact, Bangalore is in the top-10 most polluted cities in India.

Traffic in Bangalore

From the other side, prosperity has meant better condition of life, more professional and educational opportunities but, at the same time, also the increase of inequality. It is very common to see poverty and opulence in the space of few meters in the same street.

The wealth is also evident looking at the boost of the Income per capita: in 2000 in the state of Karnataka it was around 17.500 Rupees (250 Eur), now it is around 77000 (about 1000 Eur) - Per Capita Income of India. Also the cost of life is not as low as it could be expected, but actually comparable to the Eastern Europe: Bangalore is the third most expensive city in India after Dehli and Mumbai.

A cow in the street

Bangalore shows positive and negative effects of its economic growth. Even if it is considered one of the best city to live in India - for the business opportunities, the nightlife and the climate - it presents many contrasts. It is possible to find a nice street or beautiful temples and then, suddenly after the corner, seeing some cows browsing in the garbage.

Finally, in every big city in Europe we can see social and environmental imbalance, but in Bangalore those elements seem multiplied by 100 folds.
Anyway, quoting the former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh about this modern megalopolis: "Bangalore is a brand the world identifies India with. It is also the single biggest reason why India has become such a hot investment destination".

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Who is the new President of Romania?

Recently a presidential election took place in Romania. In the first round, the Prime minister and leader of the Social Democratic Party Victor Ponta won with 40% of the votes, whilst Klaus Iohannis, leader of the Liberal National Party got 30% of preferences. The situation changed at the run-off: also after the protest on how Ponta's government organized the elections and in particular the Diaspora voting: Iohannis won with 54.5%. 

Klaus Iohannis focused his campaign on judicial independence and fiscal relaxation, offering a more liberal proposal against Ponta government, criticized also abroad for the corruption of the political system. He also built a very good reputation during the long period as major of Sibiu, in Transylvania Region, today one of the most touristic place in Romania and former European Capital of Culture (in 2007).

The figure of Klaus Iohannis is extremely interesting for two main reasons. First, he is Lutheran in a Country where the 86% of people are Orthodoxies (around 17 millions). Secondly, he is part of the Transylvanian Saxons, the German minority that is composed by 36 thousands persons.

In every Country the relation with minorities is not easy and in Romania it is well known the problem with the Hungarian minority, that set up a group of 1.2 million of people. The idea that an exponent of two minorities can become President of its State is a remarkable lesson of civilization and modernity, especially for a Country often considered low civil-minded.

Of course, the judgment will be given on the actions and on the results that the new President will get in the next five years. On some newspapers it came out the comparison with the election of Barak Obama: it is unlikely, but for sure the Obama lesson is that we have always wait the results got, before evaluate a politician. Nevertheless, elections like that can be considered not just interesting, but somehow, historical. 

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What is the economic relation between Poland and Russia?

In the last months, during the Ukrainian crisis, Poland and Russia have been strongly opposed. Warsaw has firmly supported Kiev against Putin interference. But the position of Poland has deeply exposed itself to the ban of import of some products decided  by Putin.

Even the contraposition between Poland and Russia has solid roots in the history, this has not prevent both the Countries to have a natural economic connection.

Which is the economic relation between Russia and Poland?

Russia is the fifth economic partner of Poland: more than 5% of total polish export goes towards Moscow for an amount of 9 billions of dollars per year. An important item is represented by apples that are the 27% of total apples imported in Russia. 

Instead, Warsaw mainly buys from Moscow oil (93% of the total) for a business of around 17 billions of dollars per year. The rest of oil comes from Norway (3,23%), Kazakhstan (2,07%) and Tunisia (0,45%) (Source: Observatory of Economic complexity).

Those numbers explain why the ban of fruit import decided by Putin in August has so deeply touched the economy of Poland. By the way, Poles have answered proudly with a movement born on Social Media: "Eat apples to annoy Putin" ,inviting to eat polish apples as protest against the President of Russia.

Finally, it is interesting to notice that the anti-Russian position has been hold against economical interests. Poland has paid economic consequences, but it has also had frictions with some European Partners. It is interesting to see that sometimes values seem more important than money.

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The referendum in Scotland: the end of the State?

On Thursday 18th September 2014 it will take please the referendum for the Independence of Scotland. The 9th of November it is planned a similar referendum in Cataluña.

Scotland 2014

From some electoral polls, it seems that in Scotland there is a majority for the Independence (51% vs 49%) and the attention of the media is focused on the possible scenarios after the vote.

States with a long history as Spain and United Kingdom, but also Italy and Belgium, are deeply touched by internal conflicts. What's happening? Is it really coming the end of the State created five centuries ago?

It is hard to give an answer, but it seems clear that two forces are eroding the authority of the States. The first one, is the globalization. This phenomenon has broken the borders, creating communities, facilitating transnational business, mixing the cultures. The dynamics born by the globalization cannot be controlled by the State, that actually is eluded. The second element to consider is the rebirth of regionalisms. This could be also seen as an answer to the globalization and the loosing of local traditions.  

The economic crisis and European Union have further weakened the State, unable to solve the problems of the population and constantly losing its power. 

It seems that we are crossing a period with too many social and economical problems, and that the State, the National Governments cannot face them anymore, because the origins and maybe also the solutions are outside their borders. Moreover, it is probably easier for a region to become autonomous and staying under the umbrella of the European Union. 

Regional movement are developing everywhere. But it seems that in Scotland we are assisting to a fundamental moment, not just for the history on United Kingdom.

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Few considerations after Tusk election as President of European Council

The 30th of August 2014 Donald Tusk has been nominated President of European Council. He will replace Herman Von Rompuy, President since December 2009.

The President of European Council is an important role in the Eu Institutional Framework: he/she is the principal representative of the European Union on the World stage and the person presiding over and driving forward the work of the European Council.

Simplifying, if European Union was a State, the Parliament and the EU Council could be the two branches of the Legislative Power, the Commission could represent the Government and the European Council (the college of Heads of State or Government of EU member States as well as the President of the European Commission) could be compared to the Head of State.

It will be interesting to see in the next months which consequences this designation will bring to Poland and, generally, to Europe. 

Two are the main fields to observe. First of all, the economy: Tusk is very close to the positions of Angela Merkel, that means a development with fiscal strictness and no space for more flexibility that Countries like France or Italy would like to have. Moreover, Tusk will preside over the Euro summit even if Poland doesn't have Euro yet. Will Tusk election push Poland in Eurozone? How the new President will manage the conflicts inside the European Council about the economic rules of the next years?

The second area of interest will be the foreign policy. Tusk is considered, for example, a hawk in the relations Eu - Russia. Will he persuade Eu to adopt a more rigid position against Putin? Or the new Miss Pesc Federica Mogherini will balance him (as she is considered a dove)? How will other Countries pro-Russia (as Hungary or Cyprus) react in a possibly cooling of the relations with Putin by the Eu?

Those are just conjectures. Probably nothing will really change inside the European Council, where States still have the last word. But for sure Tusk designation gives a new face at the European Union. It is the first time that a such important office is committed to a political exponent of a Eastern Country, exactly ten years after the Eastern Enlargement of Eu. For Poland, getting this role is definitely an honor and a recognition of its strategic importance and constantly increasing power inside Europe. Without forgetting the designation of Elzbieta Bienkowska as European Commissioner for the Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, another fundamental role in the European political arena.

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Which is the best way to have a low-cost holiday? Third: the accommodation

In the two previous posts, I analyzed the ways to have a low-cost holiday choosing the cheapest destinations and the cheapest transportation.

In this post, the final one of the trilogy (!), I want to put in evidence the ways to save money for the accommodation. There are many possibilities, from the classic hotel to the camping, but I would like to focus about two main (and cheapest) options: the hostels and Couchsuring.

A classic dormitory in a hostel

The first hostel was created in Germany in 1912... Nowadays there are more than 4500 hostels all over the World. Hostels offer cheap accommodation, usually in a dormitory with a variable number of beds. People choose hostels for saving money but also for the environment. There are usually open spaces in which the guests can interact each other and hostel can become not just a place to sleep but also a place to meet people and sharing experiences.

If hostels can look too expensive, there is always the possibility to sleep somewhere else for free, thanks to Couchsurfing. This is a hospitality exchange and social networking website. People can offer a couch to sleep (for free) or, if they don't have place available, they can just offer a coffee and maybe a tour of the place they live.

Couchsurfing is present almost everywhere, with more the 3 millions of users. It is very common in Europe and Us, but we can find couchsurfers also in China, Russia, Australia and Brazil. Despite few negative episodes, the network of couchsurfers is safe and hosts reliable. It is interesting to notice the average age is 28 years, the 71% of members speaks English, the 20% are from United States. The common values are social integration, anti-discrimination, open-mindedness.

Couchsurfers in the World

Finally. which is the best way to have a low-cost holiday?

I would say that it depends from your budget and from your open-mindedness. If someone has a very little amount of money, the option couchsurfing + hitchhiking gives the opportunity to spend money just for food, not giving up to an holiday.

After all, the most important thing is that if you really want to travel, to visit places and to share experiences, you don't have to be rich, you just need to be open-minded, and maybe a little bit daredevil.

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Which is the best way to have a low-cost holiday? Second: the transportation

Even if the mid of August has passed few days ago, it is still time of holidays.

In the previous post, I have discussed about the choice of the best destinations in order to have a low cost holiday. Today I would like to write about the transport options we can have.

Once you choose a destination, there are many ways to get it (and to visit it). I am going just to mention some of them, the most known.

The cheapest way to travel is hitchhiking. This method has the big advantage that is completely free, but from the other side you never know who will give you a lift and you cannot schedule a trip because you cannot predict if and when you will get a ride. Hitchhiking is very common in some Countries like Poland and Netherlands, where there are also platforms dedicated to people waiting for a ride. In Cuba hitchhiking is mandatory by government vehicles, because of the small number of cars.

Another possibility to travel is given by car-pooling service, like Bla Bla Car. In this case, someone who has to travel from a city to another can offer a ride in exchange of the payment of a part of the costs. This solution is generally cheap, but you cannot always find the route you need.

Bus and train can be a good solution if you can find a good offer. For example Polskibus has been a huge success in Poland, because the ticket prices are very low (you can find a ticket from Krakow to Warsaw at less than 10 Euros). Interrail is also a good way to visit one or more countries: you pay a ticket for unlimited trips by train in one ore more Countries for a specific period of time.

If you have a larger budget and you don't want to spend to much time travelling, there are many offers from the low-cost Airlines as Ryanair or Wizzair. From one side, thanks to this solution you can arrive everywhere in Europe. From the other, it is not always easy to find a ticket really cheap and there are also restrictions regarding luggage.

Finally, you can always traver by your own vehicles. More than a car, it is interesting mentioning that many people are used to travel by bike. Even if it is more difficult to plan "exotic trips", travelling by bike gives more opportunities to enjoy the nature and to discover places not easily accessible via other transportations.

As you can see, there are many opportunities to travel in a cheap way. We are spoiled for choice!

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Which is the best way to have a low-cost holiday? First: the destination

In this period many people are planning summer holidays. 

The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has estimated that in 2013 Europe has attracted the most number of tourists in the World (52%), followed by Asia (23), America (15), Africa (5) and Middle East (3). Regarding the Countries, France is the first world destination, then Usa, Spain, China and Italy.

Bucharest - the cheapest destination in Europe

During the crisis not everybody can plan a long holiday in one of the places mentioned above. But it doesn't mean that holidays must be cancelled. There is still a huge variety of choices that gives us the possibility to spend some days in nice places, without wasting too much money.

Which is the best way to have a low-cost holiday in Europe? 

I would like to analyze three elements: the destination, the form of transport and the accommodation. This post will be dedicated only to the choice of destination. The two others will be discussed in the next days.

The European Backpacker Index is a good instrument for an overview of the most economic cities in Europe. The 2014 index ranks Bucharest, Kiev and Sofia as the cheapest destinations, whilst Zurich, Stockholm and Oslo are the most expensive. In the top-10 there are also other beautiful cities of Eastern Europe, such as Belgrade, Sarajevo, Krakow and Budapest. 

In this part of Europe the cost of life is lower: if for a meal in Bucharest you have to pay 40 Ron (9 Eur), in a city as Lisbon the price is 16 Eur and in Venice 26. The price of a good hostel in Krakow can reach 30 zloty (7 Eur), in Zurich 41 CHF (33 Eur).

These elements can explain why the tourism in Central and Eastern Europe has increases by 7% last year.

Even with those good results, we still have to register some diffidence from a part of the international tourism, that associates East with grey communist buildings and problems of security. Even if cities like Budapest and Prague are part of the international touristic circuit, there are also other Countries that can offer beautiful places and low-cost holidays.

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Can the debate about Palestine become just a contrast among supporters?

One week ago, I was in Tel Aviv. I have decided to visit Israel for tourism. Even if I am not a religious person, I think that Middle East can offer extraordinary places, a thousand-year old culture and beautiful natural sites.

In the last days of my stay, I started to hear and to see the rockets from Gaza. 

Even when the sirens stroke in the streets or on the beach, it seemed the none was scared, except for few tourists. Life in Tel Aviv was going on normally. Of course, we know that in the Gaza Strip the situation was the opposite. People were diyng and a huge part of population was moving to the south of the Strip (or trying to do that) to avoid the missiles from the Israeli Army.

When you see a place with your eyes, it can happen that you become more involved in the problems of that place. Probably because it doesn't seem so far anymore, I am constantly following the news from Middle East. I am also reading many articles to understand better the situation and the history of the last century on negotiations and wars in the area.

Yitzhak Rabin (Israel Prime Minister), Bill Clinton, and Yasser Arafat (Leader of PLO)
during the Oslo Accords on 13 September 1993

But trying to understand is very hard, because it seems that to analyze the contrasts between Israel and Palestinians, first you have to become supporter of one of the two parts. If you don't want or you cannot take a sharp position, you can just issue many questions, without any answer.

How is it possible that people who suffered the Holocaust can kill so many persons, especially children? Can it be possible supporting people who launches rockets to civilians, cities and airports without any scope, except killing other people? How can 1.6 million of people living in the Gaza Strip with constant limitations to their freedom? Have a Country the right to defend its citizens from kamikaze attacks? Can be a permanent peace if Hamas doesn't recognize the right of Israel to exist? Can be a permanent peace if Israel continues to colonize the West Bank? Is the creation of two States or the maintenance of a permanent conflict the real aim of the political leaderships of both the parts?

I have just questions. No answer.

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The importance of being a Unesco World Heritage Site

Few days ago, Italy got another Unesco World Heritage Site, the area of Langhe-Roero and Monferrato, famous all over the world for its vineyard.

A UNESCO Site is a place recognized as of special cultural or physical significance. The criteria to be able to become a Site are defined in a Convention adopted by UN in 1972. The main element to identify a Site is the uniqueness it represents for human history or natural phenomena.

From 1972, there have been created 981 World Heritage Sites, located in 160 different Countries, the most part in Europe and North America. Following the top 10 list of the Countries with most number of Sites:

  1)   Italy - 50 
  2)   China - 47
  3)   Spain - 44
  4)   Germany - 39
  5)   France  - 39
  6)   Mexico - 32
  7)   India - 32
  8)   Uk - 28
  9)   Russia - 26
10)   US - 22

Considering the long procedure to became a Unesco Site (for instance, the candidature of Langhe-Roero began 10 years ago), why is it so important to enter in the Unesco List? Are there real benefit of being a World Heritage Site?

First, when a place becomes part of World Heritage it can have more easily access to National and International Founds. Then, a new Site can increase the number of tourists. From the other side, the prestigious given by being part of Unesco List involves also keeping in a good status the Site itself. This requires further investments and a system of control for the site.

The influence of "UNESCO Brand" is difficult to calculate. Some surveys have estimated that it can touch the 30% of tourists. But there are other elements that influence the tourism of a specific place, from marketing to the accessibility. Moreover, most of the sites were already touristic centers and in some cases the Unesco recognition didn't affect visitors inflow. 

Finally, it seems important to point out that the World Heritage List has been often criticized. From one site, there is a distortion in the number of sites: 496 out of 962 are from North America and Europe, the richest part of the world. Furthermore, the number itself of the sites has raised quickly in the last decades, and the designation has lost part of its uniqueness. The debate to reform the system is still open and regards both the improvement of the criteria to indentify a site, and also the number of the sites can be in the list each year. But for the moment nothing really seems to change.

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Is it worth hosting a major sporting event?

Few days ago the 2014 World Cup has began in Sao Paolo in Brazil. It is estimated that the economical effort to build all the infrastructures for Word Cup and Olympic Games (that will take place again in Sao Paolo in 2016) will touch the amount of 33 billion US Dollars (24 bl Euros).

Such an expense for the organization of a sporting event is creating many protests from the population. Brazil is a country with wide economical disparities, an high crime rate and a large part of the population  (15%) under the poverty threshold.

Many Brazilians think that such a big amount of money should have been used to solve those problems and not for a sporting event. A recent poll has showed that just 35% of people think that World Cup can have a positive effect on the national economy.

So it is spontaneous wondering if hosting a major sporting event can be an economic advantage or a loss. To answer we can take a look at the history of past International Sport Events.

Just few years ago, for example, the State of Canada has run out the debit for the Olympic Games of Montreal, that took place in 1976. Athens 2004 was a fantastic show, but its cost, around 10 billion Euros, have speeded up the collapse of the economy. 

A research has estimated that for the London Olympic games in 2013 there have been an immediate retuns of 800 million Euros, 5 billion will come back before the end of 2015 with a 0.3-0.4% of GDP growth rate. Considering that the total cost have touched the 10 billion Euros, there will be probably many years to refund the debit. 

Barcelona 1992, instead, was a fantastic opportunity for the renovation of the imagine of the city, that has become one of the most attractive touristic city in the world. Also Turin has changed its international image after the XX Winter Olympic Games in 2006, at the price of 3 billion Euros. 

Panoramic of the costs of the most recent Olympic Games (www.tradingfloor.com)

It seems that hosting sportive events is not always a good investment. The returns are not enougth  to cover the costs, or they can do it on a very long period (30 years for Montreal...). Moreover, the structures built for those kinds of events are often not reutilezed anymore. It is, once again, the case of Athens, where the beautiful Olympic park has been left to the decay. 

Maybe, it is the moment to rethink to the organization of major sporting events, from one side to preserve the tradition and to the other to face to the current economic situation, unless we want to see these events taking place just in Dubai or similar places.

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Monarchy or Republic?

The flag of the Kingdom of Spain

Few days ago, King Juan Carlos of Spain, has announced his unexpected abdication.

In Spain this decision has fired up a wide debate about the opportunity to move to a Republican State, especially in a such a difficult moment for the Country, deeply touched by the economic crisis (the unemployment rate is the worst in Europe at 25%, 54% for young people).

But how much do Monarchies cost in Europe?

A reaserch of Prof. Herman Matthjis from the University of Ghent has analyzed the costs of the Royal Families. The most expensive Monarchy is Norway: 42 million euro per year, followed by The Netherlands and UK (38 million), Sweden (15), Belgium and Denmark (13), finally Spain (8). If we consider cost per capita, Spanish pay just 0,17 euro to the King, instead of 1 euro for Belgians and 5 euros for Norwegians.

Republican countries spend much more for their Head of State. The President of France has a budget of 112 million euro each year, but he has also other functions, not just representative. The President of the Italian Republic costs the record amount of 228 million euro. At the opposite pole, the President of Germany has "just" 20 million euro.

Monarchies in the World (in red)

If we evaluate just the costs, Monarchy seems quite better than Republic. But there is a strong main argument against Monarchy: the fact that someone, just because son or daughter of the King/Queen, can become King/Queen him/herself, represents a violation of the most important principle of democracy, the equality between the citizens of a State.

Anyway, arguments in favor of Monarchy or Republic are various. More than the institutions, we should evaluate each person at the head of a State. In some cases Kings have been important as guarantee of democracy and unity of a Country, such as Juan Carlos after the Franco dictatorship, or Albert II against the secessionist forces that crossed Belgium in the last years. In others, like in Italy during the fascism, Monarchy didn't support democracy and didn't contribute to the stability of the Country (in fact Italians voted for Republic in a referendum in 1946).

In conclusion, it can be sharable to say that the reputation of Monarchy depends mainly by how Monarchs can use their power and by how much they respect their people.

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Can the Italian Democratic Party be a new model for European Socialists?

The last European Elections has largely confirmed the previsions: Eurosceptics have got many votes and the abstaining has touched another record.

The only surprise of these Elections has been Italy. The Democratic Party (Partito Democratico PD), leaded by Matteo Renzi, has won the European Elections 2014 with the 40% of votes, +13% in comparison with the result of the National Political Election in 2013. This is the best result ever got by the PD since it was born in 2007.

The victory has two main causes. First, the other competitors have done mistakes in the electoral campaign (the case of Movimento 5 Stelle) or have had a too weak leadership (the case of Berlusconi's Party Forza Italia).

Second and most important element to comprehend this victory is the charismatic figure of Matteo Renzi. The former Major of Florence has conquered PD in December 2013, becoming Party Secretary. In a couple of months, following the contrasts with the Former Prime Minister Enrico Letta (PD member himself), Renzi finally became Head of the Government.

Renzi's political view followed two main guidelines: from one hand, he proposed the turnover of the political leadership and a strong reduction of the costs of politics. From the other, he never put in discussion the participation of Italy in the European Union and the respect of the Institutions. In this way, he could compete with other more populist political forces during the electoral campaign, but at the same time, he could keep an strong appeal to the more traditional part of the electorate.

Considering the advance of Eurosceptics in the last elections, can we consider PD as a new model for European social-democratic Parties, many of them in a huge crisis?

Of course, each Country is different. But two considerations can be done: first, the most part of Europeans are still favorable to Eu integration. On the long period, attacking the Union could become a boomerang. Second, changing of leadership should be probably one of the most important topic to face by many Parties that lost the European elections. Nevertheless, changes must be also substantial.

Finally, it is possible that this time Italy will be able to show a positive example for European Partners. We will see in the next months, especially during the Italian Eu Presidency Semester.

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Poland's last Communist Leader - The enigmatic figure of General W. Jaruzelski

General Wojciech Jaruzelski has died today, 25th May 2014.

He has definitively been a central figure in the recent Polish history, especially in the transition to democracy.

It is difficult to judge the life of Jaruzelski, considering his political and military decisions in the decades between 60s and 80s.

He started his military career very early and in 1945, when he was just 22, he participated in military takeover of Warsaw and in the battle of Berlin, being part of the Polish Army. After joining Communist Party, he developed his career quickly, becoming Minister of Defense in 1968. As Minister, he ordered to occupy Czechoslovakia in August 1968. Moreover, he constantly opposed a strong repression of Polish striking workers. 

Probably the darkest period of Jaruzelski's career was during the proclamation of martial law in 1981, few months later becoming Prime Minister. The aim of the martial law was to suppress Solidarnosc, but Jaruzelski has often justified his decision in order to avoid the invasion from Soviet troops in Poland, a country that was becoming dangerous for the stability of the Soviet area. Anyway an hypothetic Soviet plan to invade Poland has never been discosed.

Jaruzelski has played a central role in the transition to democracy of Poland.  Thanks to the new political view of Gorbaciev, in 1989 negotiations were held in the famous roundtable talks with democratic forces. The agreements resulted completely changed Polish political system, with the recognition of Solidarnosc as legal organization and with a new institutional structure.

Even if Jaruzelski was able to win the Presidential elections in 1989, without the support of Solidarnosc he decided to resign.

What to believe about his political life? Was he a completely negative figure in the Polish history, or he really facilitated the Polish transition to democracy?

Two facts are objective. First, Poland has never been invaded from Sovietic Army since the end of the II World War. Even if the role held by Jaruzelsky is not clear, Poland didn’t have a similar destiny as Hungary and Czechoslovakia.

Secondly, the end of Communism in Poland was peaceful and without any division. Even if Solidarnosc was a strong movement and also Vatican was an important actor, also the Communist political leadership understood the situation and facilitated the transition.

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Waiting for EU Elections: the advance of Eurosceptical Parties

The European Elections 2014 are coming. Between the 22^nd and 25^th of May, the citizens of the 28 Eu States will have to choose the new 751 members of the European Parliament. It will be the 8^th Election of the Parliament and the first after the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.

Eu Parliament in Strasbourg

The contest of this Elections is well known. The Economic Crisis and especially the austerity held by Eu Institutions has strongly degreased the public approval of the European Leadership. For this reason, it seems very probable an affirmation of Eurosceptical Parties in many Countries.

The website Electio2014.eu gives updated projections about the electoral intentions of vote in Europe. In three Countries, France, Uk and Czeck Republic, the Eurosceptics could become the first political force, but the situation in other Nations has to be monitored too. Let's have an overview.

In France, Front National leaded by Marine Le Pen, is accredited by the 23% of votes, whilst the UMP and Parti Socialiste should reach the 21% and the 17% respectively. In Uk the Uk Indipendence Party (UKIP) could win the elections with the 31% of votes, against the Labour  (28%) and the Conservatives (22%).

Moreover, also in Italy there is an important Eurosceptical force that could reach a great result in the next elections, the Movimento Cinque Stelle. This Party has got the 25% of votes (third political force) in the 2013 national elections and this time could reach the 24%, becoming the second force after the Partito Democratico.

In Eastern Europe, it must be pointed out the situation in Czech Republic and Hungary. In the first Country, another Eurosceptical Party could win, the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, with the 24% of votes. In Hungary, after the impressive victory of the conservative forces at the last national elections of April 2014 (NotonlyEurope - Hungarian Elections 2014), there could be another affirmation of Fidesz and Jobbik: they could get together the 65% of the votes.

Special attention should also be given to Greece. SYRIZA, the Coalition of the Radical Left, could become the first political force with the 27% of votes, overtaking the Prime Minister Party Nea Democratia, attested at 25%.

A question can be finally posed: could be a real drama the victory of this Eurosceptical Parties in many Countries?

Two points should be consider to answer: first, the two major forces will be again the Party of European Socialists and the European People's Party. They will compete for the designation of the President of the Eu Commission and will play a central role in the next European  Legislature.

Second, the advance of Euroscepticism could represent an opportunity for a deep reflection about the European Union: why we are part of this Entity, what we have created in the last 60 years and what we can achieve in the future. Maybe this time, the debates should be less rhetorical and more realistic. European citizens have the right to know better what European Union is, considering not only the costs, but also the advantages.

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Waiting for Eu Elections: why has Euro been adopted?

Euro, the official currency of 18 members of European Union, is constantly at the center of the public debate since it has been adopted the 1st January 2002.

Especially in the last years, a large part of the public opinion has pointed Euro as the source of all the problems and weaknesses of the European economy.The question at the base of every discussion about Euro is apparently very simple: is Euro an advantage or a load for European Countries? 

Everyone can answer to this question in a very different way and from different points of view. But there is another question, important as well, not everybody can answer to: why has Euro been adopted?

On the website of the European Commission some benefits of a common currency are reported:

More choice and stable prices for consumers and citizens

Greater security and more opportunities for businesses and markets

Improved economic stability and growth

More integrated financial markets

A stronger presence for the EU in the global economy

A tangible sign of a European identity

Moreover, from a technical point of view, at the end of 80s it was clear that building a European single market without a common currency was absolutely impossible. 

History provides the evidence of that. For example, till the unification in 1870, Italy was divided in several small Countries, each one with its own currency. Only after the unification, under a unique currency, the economic integration has been able to grow up. And could we imagine the same economic power of USA, if there were 50 different currencies?

Obviously Eu economic governance doesn’t work well. It is evident to everyone. But it is also true that National Governments very often transfer their responsibilities on Euro, hiding their faults and their weaknesses.

Finally, today travelling from Warsaw to Budapest requires using four different currencies and imply losing money for each transaction. Can we really imagine to crystallize this situation also in the future?

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Hungarian Elections: which potential scenarios after the Fidesz victory?

At the national elections of the 6^th of April Hungary has confirmed Fidesz - the Hungarian Civic Alliance Party - and its leader and prime minister Viktor Orbán as main political force.

The result has not been a surprise, Fidesz has got the 44% of votes. Even if it has lost 600 thousands of votes in comparison with the elections of 2010, Orbán party will get 133 seats out of 199 total of the Parliament, thanks to the new and contested electoral law wanted by Fidesz itself.  It is alarming the growth of the xenophobic party Jobbik, that has got the 21,4% of votes, third force of the new Parliament of Budapest, just behind the center-left with the 25% of votes.

Hungarian Parliament in Budapest

Orbán is a really enigmatic figure in Hungary. He is considered populist, authoritarian and eurosceptic, but he growth up in a anti-communist and liberal movement. During his first premiership (1998 – 2002), Orbán started important liberalizations in Hungary, with good results in economy (drop of inflation and growth of GDP).

In the last four years, instead, he got modest economical results.  Moreover, he has been strongly contested for a series of authoritarian laws, with limitation of media freedom, a general homophobic attitude and the occupation of important key roles in some guarantee authorities by people close the Prime Minister.

What can happen now? It is hard to say.

Viktor Orbán has been able to win because of his ability to foster the fear of Hungarians towards the crisis and towards Europe.

The European elections are imminent: it seems that the eurosceptic forces will take advantage from the general anti-Eu feeling present in several Countries. 

Orbán can take two directions. The first is following the xenophobic and anti-european issues: the risk is giving more space to forces like Jobbik and, at the same time, going away from the European Union. The second is to realign himself and his Government closer to the positions of Brussels, that could be an important support against the populist and xenophobic drift as in Hungary as in other Countries.  We will see soon. 

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Behind the F1 Gp of Bahrain: a Country in revolt

The 10^th edition of the F1 Gran Prix of Bahrain has ended few hours ago. The media attention has been focused on the sportive event, that generates millions of dollars each year. But the internal situation of the Country has been completely clouded.

The race was cancelled only in 2011, when the revolts of the population began. But in the last years the Bahrain International Circuit seemed like a happy island, far from the divisions present in the Country.

But what is the current situation in Bahrain?

First of all, it’s is important to keep in mind few data about the Kingdom of Bahrain. It is a small archipelago in the Persian Gulf with a population of 1.300.000 habitants and a GDP per capita of around 28600 $, 34^th in the International Monetary Fund classification of the richest Countries in the world.

Bahrain was part of the British colonialist empire till 1971, when it reached the independence. Now it is under the kingdom of Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, last exponent of the Sunni family of al-Khalifa, linked to the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia.

The conflicts began in 2011 after the Arab Spring. The origin of the revolt is religious. In fact, even if the 70% of the population is Shiite, King Hamad and the ruling class of the Country is Sunni. Shiites, that don’t have access to the highest positions in the State, ask the transformation of Bahrain in a Constitutional Monarchy, with the possibility of electing a democratic Parliament and with the recognition of their rights.  

The revolt didn’t stop since four years and the reaction has been reflected in  tortures, rapes and deaths. The Monarchy has the support of US that want to maintain a strong relation with this strategic Country, situated between the Shiite Iran and the Sunni Saudi Arabia.  it is not a coincidence that Bahrain hosts the V fleet of the US Navy.

Finally, can geopolitical and economical interests hide social conflicts? Apparently yes. Therefore, “The show must goes on”. But till when? 

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