A grey zone at the borders of Europe: Transnistria

National Emblem of Transnistria

In the last days some observers have pointed out that the situation in Transnistria could represent a further element of instability in the Ukrainian crisis.

But what is Transnistria? And why and in which way is it under the influence of Russia?

Transnistria is a small strip of land of 4000 Km² between the Republic of Moldova and the Western part of Ukraine. The population is made up by half million of people: 32% Moldavians, 30% Russians and 29% Ukrainians.

The region is very poor. The GPD per capita was around 1500 dollars per year in 2007. The economy is based on some old industries, especially in the sector of steel, heritage of the Soviet past. Moreover, the politically instability has facilitated the development of illegal traffics of weapons and drugs.

Transnistria can be considered independent de facto, but it is not recognized from the International Community. It was part of Moldavian SSR (part itself of USSR) till 1991 when it declared its own independence unilaterally. The region also hosted  the Soviet 14^th Guards Army and for this reason it has been the location of a huge deposit of weapons.

In 1992 there was a conflict between Moldova and Transnistria, ended after 5 months after a negotiate that included Moldova, Romania, Ukraine and Russia. The agreement between the two parts of the conflict indicated Russia as peacekeeper with a military contingent of 1200 soldiers. Even if there have been many negotiations for the withdrawal of that contingent, after more than 20 years it is still present in Transnistria. Officially the military presence of Moscow guarantees the peace, but substantially let Russia keep an important influence on the region.

It seems that the majority of the population is pro-Russia. In a referendum of 2006, the 97% of voters declared the will to be annexed to Russia. The Government of Tiraspol expressed the same desire after the facts in Crimea few days ago.

Even if Transnistria is less strategic than Sebastopol, the annexation could represent another victory for Putin. There could be two main consequences: from one side, it could strengthen the influence of Russia in the region, also obstructing the negotiates of partnership between Moldova and European Union. On the other side, it could intensify the Ukrainian crisis, with unpredictable consequences in the area.

Read More

Tourism in Israel: yes we can

When hearing names like Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, many people imagine dangerous places in a semi-permanent state of war. This is not true, at all.

The history of Israel is very complex and has crossed many conflicts. In the last ten years the political situation has become more stable, especially after the Second Intifada (2000-2004). But there are still delicate zones, like in the north of the Country, at the borders with Lebanon and Syria and in the Palestinian territories, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

Western Wall - Jerusalem

In such a difficult context, it is interesting to notice a huge development of the tourism in Israel in the last years, with a record of 3,5 millions tourists in 2013.  From the Tourism Minister data, the biggest number of them came from United States, Russia, France, Germany and UK. 53% were Christians, half of them Catholics, and the 23% Jewish. The city most visited is Jerusalem, and the Western Wall the most visited site.

It seems that Israel could increase also non-religious tourism. The positive feedback from tourists regarding accommodation, transport and also the nightlife and the quality of the beaches, can attract more people who want to spend a holiday in a Mediterranean Country.

In the future, the low costs and the facility to get to Israel could contribute to the development of the sector. Apart from the flag carrier of Israel, EI AI, for example, also other companies have decided to create a route to this Country. One of them is the low-cost Wizzair, that links Tel Aviv with many cities of the Eastern Europe with few Euros.

I want to add one more consideration. The last year tourism contributed with around 11 billions dollars  to the national economy (around 4% of GDP). In order to maintain such a high level of income, the support to peace is fundamental. Hopefully, tourism could play an important role in the stabilization of the area.

Read More

Crimea: some information to understand the current situation

The Ukrainian crisis is at the center of the international attention. The 11th March Crimean Parliament has voted the annexation to Russia, position confirmed from a contested referendum five days later. The 18^th March finally, this decision has been formalized with an agreement between Putin and the Prime minister of Crimea, Sergey Akesenov, while the official Government of Kiev  and the International Community haven’t recognized the vote.

I didn't have enough information to understand the situation in Ukraine, but I really wanted to know something more about Crimea and its history. In particular, I wanted to answer to three questions: how is the population of Crimea make up? Which are the most important pillars of the Crimean economy? Why is this Region so strategic for Moscow? 

First of all, Crimea has a population of around 2 millions of people officially made up by the 58% of Russians, 24% of Ukrainians and 12% of Tatars. It is important to remember that in 1944 the entire population of Tatars was deported in Turkey, accused by Stalin of collaboration with Nazis. So the percentage of Tatars in Crimea doesn’t reflect the importance of this group in the history of the region. The wide majority of Russians can be considered obvious: the region belonged to Russia till 1954, when it was donated to Kiev by Khrushchev in occasion of the 300th anniversary of Ukraine becoming a part of the Russian Empire. 

Regarding the economy, Crimea is a quite poor territory: the most important sectors are tourism and agriculture, but the region is reach of natural gas. The GDP per capita is around the 66% lower of the average in Ukraine and the 80% of the Russian one. Some sources estimate that the economy of the region depends for the 75% directly from the Government of Kiev. 

Crimea doesn’t seem attractive enough to justify the interest of Russia. The economy in quite modest and about the population, there are larger Russian communities in Countries like Kazakhstan (4 million), Belarus ( 1,2 millions) and in Ukraine itself there are 8 millions of Russians.

So why is Crimea so strategic for Russia? There are at least two reasons: one military and one energetic. 

Sebastopol hosts the main military base of the Russian Navy in the Black See (and consequently in the Mediterranean). Russia has two other basis, Novorossiysk and Temryuk, but the deep waters of Sebastopol and the better position explains why Russia has assigned on Crimea the development of its navy. Moscow also has built port infrastructures ex novo: the lost of this region could represent the inability to use its navy in that area and also huge investments for the construction of new basis. 

Moreover, there is an energetic reason that makes Crimea so important: there are two pipelines crossing the Black Sea, the Blue Stream from Russia to Turkey and the South Stream from Russia to Europe. The control of the Black Sea means also the protection of two important energetic lines.

Finally, it is clear why Russia wants to get Crimea. I think it will be more difficult to comprehend if Moscow will be able to face the political and especially the economical sanctions of the International Community, while someone has estimated the annexation of Crimea for the Kremlin economy will cost around 3 billions of dollars per year.

Read More

Poland: the leading outsourcing destination in Europe

I want to dedicate the first post of this blog to Poland, the country in which I live.

Poland is a really interesting case in Europe, in the last years has seen a robust economic growth in a reverse trend with respect to the crisis that has touched Europe bringing a slowdown of the economy and an increase of the unemployment rate and social contrasts.

Wroclaw 

Poland has used very well the Eu funds and the Government has implemented incisive structural reforms also helped by the stability of the political system.

A key element of the Polish development is represented by the delocalization of services like accounting, customer care and IT support from the West to the Eastern Europe. In the last ten years, many corporations have decided to create shared services centers in Poland in order to develop their business, maintaining high quality of service and bringing down costs.

There are two processes to be distinguished: outsourcing and offshoring. Outsourcing is the contracting out of a business process, previously performed internally, to an independent organization from which the process is purchased back as a service. Instead offshoring describes the relocation by  a company of a business process from one country to another: in this case the process rests within the company. It often happens that a company decides to implement both processes: it can create, for instance, a internal centre (but in another country) to delocalize some internal processes, and at the same time, it can commit other processes to an outsourcing center. It also can happen that the same company creates a BPO (Business Process Outsourcing) for external clients and a Global service center for its internal processes.

It is interesting to notice that there are an estimated number of 500 offshore outsourcing centers in Eastern Europe, and Poland is poised for major expansion in the coming years (www.sourcingline.com). According to KPMG, an audit and consultancy firm, Poland ranks third for shared services centers and business process outsourcing in the world after India and China. Poland's key assets are considered its trained and educated workforce, the economic and political stability and the depreciation of the zloty (the local currency).

The importance of Poland in the outsourcing strategies is evident also from the list of the 100 most important outsourcing Cities 2012 (http://www.cuti.org.uy). Although India took 13 places in the list (Bangalore got the first position) and China 8, Poland with 3 cities, Krakow (10st), Warsaw (36th) and Wroclaw (75th), is the most represented European country.

There are two main consequences of this phenomenon. First of all, investments in outsourcing have brought wealth, reflected in new and modern infrastructures, new international power and in a reinforcement of the domestic demand. Secondly, Poland is becoming a point of attraction for international workers, pushed to leave their own Country by the economic crisis of the last years.

Ten years ago in the Western Europe there was the fear of the famous Polish plumber, ready to invade France, Italy and Germany providing a low cost service. Today instead, it is estimated that over 600 thousands foreigners are officially residents in Poland and this number is estimated to increase. It seems to be an historical victory for a Country that came out just 20 years ago from the Soviet grip.

Read More

Why a Blog?

Create a project and follow it is always a difficult choice, especially when you have a job and you have to use your free time and a part of your weekends.

I have decided to create NotonlyEurope to feed my passion, Politics. I spent so many years at the University, studying history, international affairs, law, economics, and when finally I entered in the world of work I have never used all the knowledge, I just left it in a drawer of the memory.  

Now, many years later since I finished my studies, I wanted to create something for me and for my interests. I wanted to have a space to put order to my thoughts about Europe, about the economic crisis, about the job market and so on.

Internet offers a great space to do that, using the "blog" as the best instrument.

I have chosen to write in English, even if it would be much easier for me to write in Italian, my mother tongue, and even if my English is not perfect. But I know that writing in English will increase the probability to receive, maybe sooner or later, an opinion, a feedback or a critic for a post I am publishing. 

This blog has not a specific aim to reach. I don’t want to convince anyone about my ideas, I’m not looking for supporters or for business opportunities. Nevertheless, I hope to have the occasion to touch some interesting themes, maybe acquire new information, perhaps open some discussions, for sure doing something I like.

It’s 15th of March 2014. Let’s start this experiment and let’s see how it will work.

Read More