A grey zone at the borders of Europe: Transnistria

National Emblem of Transnistria

In the last days some observers have pointed out that the situation in Transnistria could represent a further element of instability in the Ukrainian crisis.

But what is Transnistria? And why and in which way is it under the influence of Russia?

Transnistria is a small strip of land of 4000 Km² between the Republic of Moldova and the Western part of Ukraine. The population is made up by half million of people: 32% Moldavians, 30% Russians and 29% Ukrainians.

The region is very poor. The GPD per capita was around 1500 dollars per year in 2007. The economy is based on some old industries, especially in the sector of steel, heritage of the Soviet past. Moreover, the politically instability has facilitated the development of illegal traffics of weapons and drugs.

Transnistria can be considered independent de facto, but it is not recognized from the International Community. It was part of Moldavian SSR (part itself of USSR) till 1991 when it declared its own independence unilaterally. The region also hosted  the Soviet 14^th Guards Army and for this reason it has been the location of a huge deposit of weapons.

In 1992 there was a conflict between Moldova and Transnistria, ended after 5 months after a negotiate that included Moldova, Romania, Ukraine and Russia. The agreement between the two parts of the conflict indicated Russia as peacekeeper with a military contingent of 1200 soldiers. Even if there have been many negotiations for the withdrawal of that contingent, after more than 20 years it is still present in Transnistria. Officially the military presence of Moscow guarantees the peace, but substantially let Russia keep an important influence on the region.

It seems that the majority of the population is pro-Russia. In a referendum of 2006, the 97% of voters declared the will to be annexed to Russia. The Government of Tiraspol expressed the same desire after the facts in Crimea few days ago.

Even if Transnistria is less strategic than Sebastopol, the annexation could represent another victory for Putin. There could be two main consequences: from one side, it could strengthen the influence of Russia in the region, also obstructing the negotiates of partnership between Moldova and European Union. On the other side, it could intensify the Ukrainian crisis, with unpredictable consequences in the area.