How much do the promises of the Italian politicians cost?

This is an important year for Italy: in few weeks the Political Elections will take place. And the electoral campaign already started, with a bunch of unrealistic promises from the opponents.  

Renzi, former Prime Minister, is proposing - for instance - the abolition of the tax to the national public broadcasting company Rai. This would cost 1.8 billion Eur per year. The new left led by the current President of the Senate Grasso, is proposing instead the abolition of the University taxes, at the cost of almost 2 billion euros per year. Of course, those will be the first elections in which the generation born in 2000 will go to vote.

On the right side, we have seen the back on the political stage of the eternal outsider Silvio Berlusconi, who is proposing the abolition of almost all the taxes: for cars, for donations, for inheritance plus a new fiscal system of flat tax (40 billions). He and his alley - Lega Nord - are also proposing the abolition of the last pension reform, that will cost the impressive amount of 80 billions euro/year since 2025.

The Moviment 5 Stelle, that has good chances to win the elections, is proposing the creation of a "citizen income" that would cost 15 billions per year.

Politicians are doing to many promises that are unrealistic but they are not explain us how we can develop resources, work, wealth in a country that is in permanent decline since three decades. 

Political leadership is looking at the people who have interests to defend (pensions, salaries, properties,...) and they are not providing a vision of how we will handle our future. 

Italian electoral campaign is funny and desolately sad at the same time.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If you are interested in the cost of the electoral promises, you can take a look at this article published by La Repubblica (sorry, in Italian).

Read More

Ireland, Poland, Spain: a week-end that can change Europe

The last week end was exceptionally important for Europe, even if it wasn't perceived like that from everybody.

This is a period of elections and referendum all over Europe. And one week ago three important consultations took place in Ireland, Spain and Poland.

The referendum in Ireland was organized to modify the Constitution and to allow the same-sex marriage. In Spain there were important administrative elections. In Poland finally, the was the second run for the Presidential Elections.

Although the nature of the consultations were different, the results will be deeply change Europe.

Ireland will be the first Country in the world to allow the same-sex marriage in the Constitution. That could have a positive effect also in other Countries and, at the same time, the Church will have to accept that the something is changing in the society.

In Spain, Podemos broke the traditional bipartisan political system, winning in both Madrid and Barcelona. The Popular Party is still the first force, but this is an important signal for the political elections in November.

Poland surprised everybody with the election of the Eurosceptic Andrzej Duda as new President of the Republic. Even if Warsaw is considered the emerging economic power in Europe, also thanks to the Eu funds, a huge part of the Country has not yet touched by the wealth and is asking for a change.

It is interesting to notice that the immobility of the European establishment is going to be overtaken by the choice of the electorate, in a sense or in another. We don't live in a perfect world, but democracy can still amaze us.

Read More

Is France coming back to Monsieur Sarkozy?

The 22nd of March it took place an important Administrative Election in France.

The winner? Monsieur Sarkozy. The former President of the Republic, back to the active politics, brought his party. the UMP, to the 29% of votes, winning the elections. The Front National got the second place (25% of votes), whilst the PS got the 22%.

Is France going back to Sarkozy?

It is too early to say that. But few considerations must be done.

First, Sarkozy success in this election can be seen as the result of the weakness of the left, lead by Hollande, who has seemed completely unable to give a strong direction to France in this complex economic situation. Even if French choose him just three years ago for the Elysee. 

Moreover, even if Marine Le Pen can get a lot of votes, it is improbable that the Front National can really win the elections. And to avoid to vote for FN, maybe some French have decided to give their support to the UMP.

Anyway, the election in France are always an important litmus test for Europe. Is Eu able to give an answer to the social and economic problems that many of French, Italians, Spanish (and so on) feel? 

Apparently it seems that Brussels is just waiting, stuck within its contradictions. In the meantime, anti-European, xenophobic and racist forces are growing in every Country.     

Read More

Who is the new President of Romania?

Recently a presidential election took place in Romania. In the first round, the Prime minister and leader of the Social Democratic Party Victor Ponta won with 40% of the votes, whilst Klaus Iohannis, leader of the Liberal National Party got 30% of preferences. The situation changed at the run-off: also after the protest on how Ponta's government organized the elections and in particular the Diaspora voting: Iohannis won with 54.5%. 

Klaus Iohannis focused his campaign on judicial independence and fiscal relaxation, offering a more liberal proposal against Ponta government, criticized also abroad for the corruption of the political system. He also built a very good reputation during the long period as major of Sibiu, in Transylvania Region, today one of the most touristic place in Romania and former European Capital of Culture (in 2007).

The figure of Klaus Iohannis is extremely interesting for two main reasons. First, he is Lutheran in a Country where the 86% of people are Orthodoxies (around 17 millions). Secondly, he is part of the Transylvanian Saxons, the German minority that is composed by 36 thousands persons.

In every Country the relation with minorities is not easy and in Romania it is well known the problem with the Hungarian minority, that set up a group of 1.2 million of people. The idea that an exponent of two minorities can become President of its State is a remarkable lesson of civilization and modernity, especially for a Country often considered low civil-minded.

Of course, the judgment will be given on the actions and on the results that the new President will get in the next five years. On some newspapers it came out the comparison with the election of Barak Obama: it is unlikely, but for sure the Obama lesson is that we have always wait the results got, before evaluate a politician. Nevertheless, elections like that can be considered not just interesting, but somehow, historical. 

Read More

Hungarian Elections: which potential scenarios after the Fidesz victory?

At the national elections of the 6^th of April Hungary has confirmed Fidesz - the Hungarian Civic Alliance Party - and its leader and prime minister Viktor Orbán as main political force.

The result has not been a surprise, Fidesz has got the 44% of votes. Even if it has lost 600 thousands of votes in comparison with the elections of 2010, Orbán party will get 133 seats out of 199 total of the Parliament, thanks to the new and contested electoral law wanted by Fidesz itself.  It is alarming the growth of the xenophobic party Jobbik, that has got the 21,4% of votes, third force of the new Parliament of Budapest, just behind the center-left with the 25% of votes.

Hungarian Parliament in Budapest

Orbán is a really enigmatic figure in Hungary. He is considered populist, authoritarian and eurosceptic, but he growth up in a anti-communist and liberal movement. During his first premiership (1998 – 2002), Orbán started important liberalizations in Hungary, with good results in economy (drop of inflation and growth of GDP).

In the last four years, instead, he got modest economical results.  Moreover, he has been strongly contested for a series of authoritarian laws, with limitation of media freedom, a general homophobic attitude and the occupation of important key roles in some guarantee authorities by people close the Prime Minister.

What can happen now? It is hard to say.

Viktor Orbán has been able to win because of his ability to foster the fear of Hungarians towards the crisis and towards Europe.

The European elections are imminent: it seems that the eurosceptic forces will take advantage from the general anti-Eu feeling present in several Countries. 

Orbán can take two directions. The first is following the xenophobic and anti-european issues: the risk is giving more space to forces like Jobbik and, at the same time, going away from the European Union. The second is to realign himself and his Government closer to the positions of Brussels, that could be an important support against the populist and xenophobic drift as in Hungary as in other Countries.  We will see soon. 

Read More