The 3 guys who made the "Catalonia Affair" a giant mistake

2017 has seen one of the worst and unreasonable political crisis in Europe since over 20 years: the Catalonia claim of independence.

We have seen the tension before and during the referendum, we have seen the dispute between Rajoy and Puigdemont, the declaration of Independence, the suspension of Catalonia autonomy and the new elections, that showed just yesterday how people are divided. What a mess!

This crisis has been managed badly from all the parties, especially from 3 persons, that have showed a very low political leadership and lack of vision.

First of the list Mariano Rajoy. If you are at the head of the Government of such a big and important Country like Spain, you cannot act like Independentists do not exist. If Catalonia government is issuing a will of independence that brings to a referendum, you really cannot ignore them. Furthermore, what happened during the referendum with the police has convinced many people to vote for going out from Spain. Instead of going for dialogue, Rajoy decided to increase the tension adopting a very short-sighet perspective.

The second responsible of this chaos is Carles Puigdemont. How can you lead a strategic region like Catalonia and arrive to a referendum for an independence that nobody (European Union first) would never accept? Politics is first of all being realistic, and he hasn't be at all.

Third in the list, the King Felipe VI. Just after the referendum, he had the chance to bring stability back in Spain and to represent also the Catalans that peacefully went to vote for the independence. He could be the warrant of the Constitution and of the rights of all of his citizens. He decided for the opposite way attacking Catalonia Independentist, not following - for instance - the King of another country strongly divided like Belgium.

3 weak leaders, huge mistakes and one certainty after the referendum: "Catalonia Affair" is far to end.

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Movimento 5 Stelle and Podemos: two sides of a different coin

Tomorrow in Italy it will take place the second round of the municipality elections in many important cities. In particular, Turin and Rome could become the first big cities with a major of the Movimento 5 Stelle.

In Europe there is already a similar case, in Spain where Podemos already governs Madrid and Barcelona.

Even if it would be easy to compare those two experiences, actually Podemos and M5S are very different.

Podemos is the political expression of the Indignados movement. They first created a network of  mutual support and then part of the movement entered in the political arena. Still now, Podemos is linked to the territory and it has a more left orientation.

M5S has a more top-down structure, where the leader Beppe Grillo plays a key role in all the main political decisions. Moreover, the political view is more ambiguous, touching issues of protest, and some typical perspective from the left and from the right at the same time.

Both Podemos and M5S did probably a mistake at the national level. They decided not to form a government when they could, as they didn't want to negotiate with other political forces. For the Madrid and Barcelona cases, Podemos had to do that, with good results.

We will see what it will happen in Turin and Rome, but for sure a huge change is coming in Italy and we cannot predict the consequences neither locally neither at the national level.

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3 possible scenarios after the Catalan Elections

In Catalonia the new Parliament is going to be led by the Independentists. This can bring important consequences in Spain and in Europe.

We can see at least three different scenarios. 

First. The win of the Independents can start a democratic process for the independence of Catalonia. This could create a domino effect in other Countries, like in Scotland or Belgium. The tensions could increase and new referendum could take place in those countries. 

Second. Madrid imposes its power and no changes will be done in the relation with Catalonia. This could create a very fluid and nervous situation. The unilateral declaration of independence of Barcelona could be an unexpected outcome. And after that, the unpredictable reaction of the Central Government.

Third, the most probable, the new strong power of the Independentists could reasonably bring to a new Constitution with a real federalism. This option could preserve the unity of the State giving, at the same time, an answer to the request of autonomy by Catalonia.

Above all, we have to consider that the 47,7% of votes for the independence is not the majority. This means that the will to leave Spain is not prevalent in Catalonia. And this is a date, not an opinion.

Considering all, a new Federal Constitution seems the best solution possible.

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Ireland, Poland, Spain: a week-end that can change Europe

The last week end was exceptionally important for Europe, even if it wasn't perceived like that from everybody.

This is a period of elections and referendum all over Europe. And one week ago three important consultations took place in Ireland, Spain and Poland.

The referendum in Ireland was organized to modify the Constitution and to allow the same-sex marriage. In Spain there were important administrative elections. In Poland finally, the was the second run for the Presidential Elections.

Although the nature of the consultations were different, the results will be deeply change Europe.

Ireland will be the first Country in the world to allow the same-sex marriage in the Constitution. That could have a positive effect also in other Countries and, at the same time, the Church will have to accept that the something is changing in the society.

In Spain, Podemos broke the traditional bipartisan political system, winning in both Madrid and Barcelona. The Popular Party is still the first force, but this is an important signal for the political elections in November.

Poland surprised everybody with the election of the Eurosceptic Andrzej Duda as new President of the Republic. Even if Warsaw is considered the emerging economic power in Europe, also thanks to the Eu funds, a huge part of the Country has not yet touched by the wealth and is asking for a change.

It is interesting to notice that the immobility of the European establishment is going to be overtaken by the choice of the electorate, in a sense or in another. We don't live in a perfect world, but democracy can still amaze us.

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Podemos?

Few days ago some electoral polls have given Podemos, the party founded at the beginning of 2014 and born by the Indignados movement, the 28% of voting intentions. It has become the first party in Spain: PSOE should get the 20% and the PP 26%.

There is a similar situation in Greece, where Syriza is accredited of 31% of votes and could win the incoming political election.

But what would it mean if an anti-austerity force could win the elections in one of the most important European Countries?

In the last years, many protest movements became a Party and could get a lot of votes. In Italy, one of the biggest and weakest economy of Europe, the "Movimento 5 Stelle" leaded by a former comedian, got an extraordinary success in the general elections of 2013 (second Party with 25% votes).  Even with strong and supported ideas to change the system, the movement has not been really able to transform itself in a real Party, a essential condition to convert ideas in laws.

In Spain, in a post-electoral scenario with three main and opposed forces, it is possible to imagine an alliance between Socialist and Moderates in a solidarity government. But the importance of Podemos as first party could bring their leaders to be central in the future reforms.

One thing is sure: the raise of those forces cannot be considered just a signal, but a deep transformation of the European electorate. We are just waiting a consequent transformation at the political level too.

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Monarchy or Republic?

The flag of the Kingdom of Spain

Few days ago, King Juan Carlos of Spain, has announced his unexpected abdication.

In Spain this decision has fired up a wide debate about the opportunity to move to a Republican State, especially in a such a difficult moment for the Country, deeply touched by the economic crisis (the unemployment rate is the worst in Europe at 25%, 54% for young people).

But how much do Monarchies cost in Europe?

A reaserch of Prof. Herman Matthjis from the University of Ghent has analyzed the costs of the Royal Families. The most expensive Monarchy is Norway: 42 million euro per year, followed by The Netherlands and UK (38 million), Sweden (15), Belgium and Denmark (13), finally Spain (8). If we consider cost per capita, Spanish pay just 0,17 euro to the King, instead of 1 euro for Belgians and 5 euros for Norwegians.

Republican countries spend much more for their Head of State. The President of France has a budget of 112 million euro each year, but he has also other functions, not just representative. The President of the Italian Republic costs the record amount of 228 million euro. At the opposite pole, the President of Germany has "just" 20 million euro.

Monarchies in the World (in red)

If we evaluate just the costs, Monarchy seems quite better than Republic. But there is a strong main argument against Monarchy: the fact that someone, just because son or daughter of the King/Queen, can become King/Queen him/herself, represents a violation of the most important principle of democracy, the equality between the citizens of a State.

Anyway, arguments in favor of Monarchy or Republic are various. More than the institutions, we should evaluate each person at the head of a State. In some cases Kings have been important as guarantee of democracy and unity of a Country, such as Juan Carlos after the Franco dictatorship, or Albert II against the secessionist forces that crossed Belgium in the last years. In others, like in Italy during the fascism, Monarchy didn't support democracy and didn't contribute to the stability of the Country (in fact Italians voted for Republic in a referendum in 1946).

In conclusion, it can be sharable to say that the reputation of Monarchy depends mainly by how Monarchs can use their power and by how much they respect their people.

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