Is France coming back to Monsieur Sarkozy?

The 22nd of March it took place an important Administrative Election in France.

The winner? Monsieur Sarkozy. The former President of the Republic, back to the active politics, brought his party. the UMP, to the 29% of votes, winning the elections. The Front National got the second place (25% of votes), whilst the PS got the 22%.

Is France going back to Sarkozy?

It is too early to say that. But few considerations must be done.

First, Sarkozy success in this election can be seen as the result of the weakness of the left, lead by Hollande, who has seemed completely unable to give a strong direction to France in this complex economic situation. Even if French choose him just three years ago for the Elysee. 

Moreover, even if Marine Le Pen can get a lot of votes, it is improbable that the Front National can really win the elections. And to avoid to vote for FN, maybe some French have decided to give their support to the UMP.

Anyway, the election in France are always an important litmus test for Europe. Is Eu able to give an answer to the social and economic problems that many of French, Italians, Spanish (and so on) feel? 

Apparently it seems that Brussels is just waiting, stuck within its contradictions. In the meantime, anti-European, xenophobic and racist forces are growing in every Country.     

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Podemos?

Few days ago some electoral polls have given Podemos, the party founded at the beginning of 2014 and born by the Indignados movement, the 28% of voting intentions. It has become the first party in Spain: PSOE should get the 20% and the PP 26%.

There is a similar situation in Greece, where Syriza is accredited of 31% of votes and could win the incoming political election.

But what would it mean if an anti-austerity force could win the elections in one of the most important European Countries?

In the last years, many protest movements became a Party and could get a lot of votes. In Italy, one of the biggest and weakest economy of Europe, the "Movimento 5 Stelle" leaded by a former comedian, got an extraordinary success in the general elections of 2013 (second Party with 25% votes).  Even with strong and supported ideas to change the system, the movement has not been really able to transform itself in a real Party, a essential condition to convert ideas in laws.

In Spain, in a post-electoral scenario with three main and opposed forces, it is possible to imagine an alliance between Socialist and Moderates in a solidarity government. But the importance of Podemos as first party could bring their leaders to be central in the future reforms.

One thing is sure: the raise of those forces cannot be considered just a signal, but a deep transformation of the European electorate. We are just waiting a consequent transformation at the political level too.

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The referendum in Scotland: the end of the State?

On Thursday 18th September 2014 it will take please the referendum for the Independence of Scotland. The 9th of November it is planned a similar referendum in Cataluña.

Scotland 2014

From some electoral polls, it seems that in Scotland there is a majority for the Independence (51% vs 49%) and the attention of the media is focused on the possible scenarios after the vote.

States with a long history as Spain and United Kingdom, but also Italy and Belgium, are deeply touched by internal conflicts. What's happening? Is it really coming the end of the State created five centuries ago?

It is hard to give an answer, but it seems clear that two forces are eroding the authority of the States. The first one, is the globalization. This phenomenon has broken the borders, creating communities, facilitating transnational business, mixing the cultures. The dynamics born by the globalization cannot be controlled by the State, that actually is eluded. The second element to consider is the rebirth of regionalisms. This could be also seen as an answer to the globalization and the loosing of local traditions.  

The economic crisis and European Union have further weakened the State, unable to solve the problems of the population and constantly losing its power. 

It seems that we are crossing a period with too many social and economical problems, and that the State, the National Governments cannot face them anymore, because the origins and maybe also the solutions are outside their borders. Moreover, it is probably easier for a region to become autonomous and staying under the umbrella of the European Union. 

Regional movement are developing everywhere. But it seems that in Scotland we are assisting to a fundamental moment, not just for the history on United Kingdom.

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Waiting for EU Elections: the advance of Eurosceptical Parties

The European Elections 2014 are coming. Between the 22^nd and 25^th of May, the citizens of the 28 Eu States will have to choose the new 751 members of the European Parliament. It will be the 8^th Election of the Parliament and the first after the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.

Eu Parliament in Strasbourg

The contest of this Elections is well known. The Economic Crisis and especially the austerity held by Eu Institutions has strongly degreased the public approval of the European Leadership. For this reason, it seems very probable an affirmation of Eurosceptical Parties in many Countries.

The website Electio2014.eu gives updated projections about the electoral intentions of vote in Europe. In three Countries, France, Uk and Czeck Republic, the Eurosceptics could become the first political force, but the situation in other Nations has to be monitored too. Let's have an overview.

In France, Front National leaded by Marine Le Pen, is accredited by the 23% of votes, whilst the UMP and Parti Socialiste should reach the 21% and the 17% respectively. In Uk the Uk Indipendence Party (UKIP) could win the elections with the 31% of votes, against the Labour  (28%) and the Conservatives (22%).

Moreover, also in Italy there is an important Eurosceptical force that could reach a great result in the next elections, the Movimento Cinque Stelle. This Party has got the 25% of votes (third political force) in the 2013 national elections and this time could reach the 24%, becoming the second force after the Partito Democratico.

In Eastern Europe, it must be pointed out the situation in Czech Republic and Hungary. In the first Country, another Eurosceptical Party could win, the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, with the 24% of votes. In Hungary, after the impressive victory of the conservative forces at the last national elections of April 2014 (NotonlyEurope - Hungarian Elections 2014), there could be another affirmation of Fidesz and Jobbik: they could get together the 65% of the votes.

Special attention should also be given to Greece. SYRIZA, the Coalition of the Radical Left, could become the first political force with the 27% of votes, overtaking the Prime Minister Party Nea Democratia, attested at 25%.

A question can be finally posed: could be a real drama the victory of this Eurosceptical Parties in many Countries?

Two points should be consider to answer: first, the two major forces will be again the Party of European Socialists and the European People's Party. They will compete for the designation of the President of the Eu Commission and will play a central role in the next European  Legislature.

Second, the advance of Euroscepticism could represent an opportunity for a deep reflection about the European Union: why we are part of this Entity, what we have created in the last 60 years and what we can achieve in the future. Maybe this time, the debates should be less rhetorical and more realistic. European citizens have the right to know better what European Union is, considering not only the costs, but also the advantages.

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Waiting for Eu Elections: why has Euro been adopted?

Euro, the official currency of 18 members of European Union, is constantly at the center of the public debate since it has been adopted the 1st January 2002.

Especially in the last years, a large part of the public opinion has pointed Euro as the source of all the problems and weaknesses of the European economy.The question at the base of every discussion about Euro is apparently very simple: is Euro an advantage or a load for European Countries? 

Everyone can answer to this question in a very different way and from different points of view. But there is another question, important as well, not everybody can answer to: why has Euro been adopted?

On the website of the European Commission some benefits of a common currency are reported:

More choice and stable prices for consumers and citizens

Greater security and more opportunities for businesses and markets

Improved economic stability and growth

More integrated financial markets

A stronger presence for the EU in the global economy

A tangible sign of a European identity

Moreover, from a technical point of view, at the end of 80s it was clear that building a European single market without a common currency was absolutely impossible. 

History provides the evidence of that. For example, till the unification in 1870, Italy was divided in several small Countries, each one with its own currency. Only after the unification, under a unique currency, the economic integration has been able to grow up. And could we imagine the same economic power of USA, if there were 50 different currencies?

Obviously Eu economic governance doesn’t work well. It is evident to everyone. But it is also true that National Governments very often transfer their responsibilities on Euro, hiding their faults and their weaknesses.

Finally, today travelling from Warsaw to Budapest requires using four different currencies and imply losing money for each transaction. Can we really imagine to crystallize this situation also in the future?

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Hungarian Elections: which potential scenarios after the Fidesz victory?

At the national elections of the 6^th of April Hungary has confirmed Fidesz - the Hungarian Civic Alliance Party - and its leader and prime minister Viktor Orbán as main political force.

The result has not been a surprise, Fidesz has got the 44% of votes. Even if it has lost 600 thousands of votes in comparison with the elections of 2010, Orbán party will get 133 seats out of 199 total of the Parliament, thanks to the new and contested electoral law wanted by Fidesz itself.  It is alarming the growth of the xenophobic party Jobbik, that has got the 21,4% of votes, third force of the new Parliament of Budapest, just behind the center-left with the 25% of votes.

Hungarian Parliament in Budapest

Orbán is a really enigmatic figure in Hungary. He is considered populist, authoritarian and eurosceptic, but he growth up in a anti-communist and liberal movement. During his first premiership (1998 – 2002), Orbán started important liberalizations in Hungary, with good results in economy (drop of inflation and growth of GDP).

In the last four years, instead, he got modest economical results.  Moreover, he has been strongly contested for a series of authoritarian laws, with limitation of media freedom, a general homophobic attitude and the occupation of important key roles in some guarantee authorities by people close the Prime Minister.

What can happen now? It is hard to say.

Viktor Orbán has been able to win because of his ability to foster the fear of Hungarians towards the crisis and towards Europe.

The European elections are imminent: it seems that the eurosceptic forces will take advantage from the general anti-Eu feeling present in several Countries. 

Orbán can take two directions. The first is following the xenophobic and anti-european issues: the risk is giving more space to forces like Jobbik and, at the same time, going away from the European Union. The second is to realign himself and his Government closer to the positions of Brussels, that could be an important support against the populist and xenophobic drift as in Hungary as in other Countries.  We will see soon. 

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