Elections in Poland: the victory of the fear

The result of the last political elections in Poland has caused a wide debate in Europe about their consequences. But nobody has tried to understand why Law and Justice won those elections.

Poland is one of the most important economies in Europe. Its GPD grew up also during the last years of crisis. Many foreign companies invested in Poland for the low salaries and for the high-level education system. Last but not least, Poland received a huge amount of money in the last twenty years from Eu. 

So why have not the government of Tusk Party been confirmed?

Two main reasons.

First. a part of the country has not been touched by the development. A large part of the population is poor and the salaries are still too low, even if the cost of life in many cities raised quickly in the last years. It means that the discrepancy between riches and poor has increased deeply.

Second, the changes have arrived probably too quickly. This has caused fear and confusion in a society quite homogeneous and with a long history of communism. 

The position of Law and Justice towards immigration, European Union and homosexuality is alarming. But its victory is just another sign that something is wrong in the communication of the idea of Europe. And something is wrong in this kind of economic development. 

It is time to reflect about that.

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Why did the austerity coalition win in Portugal?

The elections that took place in Portugal recently designed an original situation in Europe. After four years of austerity strongly imposed by the Troika, the victory of the centre-right government of the premier Pedro Passos Coelho was unexpected.

The mistakes of the Socialist Party during the electoral campaign is just one of the factors that influenced the results. And even if Bloco de Esqueda (Left Block) took more than 10%, it is a good result but far from similar anti-austerity forces like Podemos and Syriza.

There are two other main reasons.

First, Portugal is currently crossing an economic growth, au contraire than in Greece and Spain. GDP grew up of 1.4% in the last year, especially thanks to the export (40% of total). 

Secondly, Portuguese society seems very conservative, not inclined to changes, even if the consequences of austerity were very strong. Moreover, especially among youngsters, indifference for politics is very common.

Is Portugal an example to follow or a specific case not applicable abroad?

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3 possible scenarios after the Catalan Elections

In Catalonia the new Parliament is going to be led by the Independentists. This can bring important consequences in Spain and in Europe.

We can see at least three different scenarios. 

First. The win of the Independents can start a democratic process for the independence of Catalonia. This could create a domino effect in other Countries, like in Scotland or Belgium. The tensions could increase and new referendum could take place in those countries. 

Second. Madrid imposes its power and no changes will be done in the relation with Catalonia. This could create a very fluid and nervous situation. The unilateral declaration of independence of Barcelona could be an unexpected outcome. And after that, the unpredictable reaction of the Central Government.

Third, the most probable, the new strong power of the Independentists could reasonably bring to a new Constitution with a real federalism. This option could preserve the unity of the State giving, at the same time, an answer to the request of autonomy by Catalonia.

Above all, we have to consider that the 47,7% of votes for the independence is not the majority. This means that the will to leave Spain is not prevalent in Catalonia. And this is a date, not an opinion.

Considering all, a new Federal Constitution seems the best solution possible.

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Volkswagen scandal: there is nothing to enjoy

It is a normal human feeling to enjoy when the first of the class makes a mistake.

In the case of the VW scandal, we are not just talking about a good student, but about the excellence in the automotive market, one of the best symbol of Germany, the richest and most powerful country in Europe, our model and our inflexible teacher.



But few numbers can give us the dimension of this fraud.

11 million vehicles affected (around 3 only in Germany), 18 billion Euros as potential penalty by the Us environment Agency Epa, 35% of value lost in Stock exchange.

Moreover, the total production of VW in 2014 touched 10 million units, with an income of 11 billion.

Looking at the numbers, it seems like this fraud can delete the production of one entire year. The consequences of this scandal will deeply affect the brand of VW, but moreover, they will impact on the production.

The CEO already resigned, with a possible bonus of 25 million Euros. But we are not considering the most important number of Volkswagen: the 592,586 employees around the World. What will it happen to this people?

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Greece - the elections of the disillusionment

The elections of the 20th September 2015 will be remembered as the most apathetic of the last years in Greece.

After the enthusiasm of July for the referendum about the new agreement between Eu and Greece, the defeat of Tsipras has made mostly indifferent the population towards who will lead the Country in the next years.

Tsipras has won with more or less the same percentage (around 35%) Syriza got in the last elections in January. Also Golden Dawn and Nea Democratia reached a similar result.

The real winner has been the abstention. Just the 53% of the Greeks went to vote, one of the lowest result ever registered in the elections.

Is this surprising?

Of course not, for people who voted 5 times in the last 6 years with no effects of the policies imposed by Brussels.

The real problem in Europe is that the lost of sovereignty of the States (Greece first), doesn't really correspond to an increase of power of the only democratic European Institution. The Parliament, of course.

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Present and past in Wrocław: a complicate relationship

Have you ever been in Wrocław? 

Wrocław is one of the most dynamic city in Poland. Many Corporations have their delivery centers there, the local University is considered one of the best of the Country. It is also a very international city, with many foreigners who work and many Erasmus students attracted by the intense nightlife and by the low cost of life.

The new Bus Station

Huge investments have been made to give a new face to Wrocław. Now the city has a new airport and also the train station has been recently renovated. Wrocław hosted some matches of Euro 2012 and it will be also the European Capital of Culture in 2016.

The new Airport

The time of communism seems very far. Even if the heritage of that period is evident everywhere: from the typical communist blocks of apartments, to the architecture of the buildings, or in the structure of the streets.

But, which is the relation between the present and the past in Wrocław?

It seems complicated.

There is the strong will to show the new Polish development, but sometimes changing turns into deleting the past. Malls are everywhere in the city and recently also the old bus station have been demolished to give space to a new mall (the third in that area – for further information click here).

Market Square

The idea of building up new palaces instead of renovating the existing ones cannot be always the best option. In ten years we will see just malls and new buildings and no memories of the past.

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The numbers of the Syrian Crisis

In these days migration is the key word on all the media in Europe. The increase of the numbers of refugees, especially from Syria, has brough different answers from the Eu Countries and the debate about how to manage the crisis is still open.

But what do we know about Syria war? Which are the numbers that can explain us the tragedy that is going on in this Country?

The Syrian war started in 2011 during the Arab Spring, with protests against the president Bashar al-Assad. The conflict sees many different actors: the national Army (supported also by Hezbollah), ISIS, the Free Syrian Army and other forces.

The number of victims seems currently close to 300 thousand, under severe human rights violations.

The gravity of this situation has caused the displacement of around 7 million of Syrians (out of 18 millions in total). It is estimated that 4 million people moved abroad from Syria to  Greece, Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt.

More than a million is currently in Lebanon (that has a population of 4.5). Turkey accepted almost 2 million of refugees.

The situation in Syria is every day worst. And that is why people are leaving the Country.

At the same time the reaction of Europe has been, as always lately, incoherent and egoistic. Even if Eu is a leading donor for the crisis with 3.9 billion Euros, the treatment of the refugees has not been the best possible, as we have seen recently in Greece (left alone to face the immigration) and in Hungary.

Number of refugees per Country since 2011 (NYT)

Europe is the richest area in the World. It is not acceptable that it doesn't take actions in a humanitarian crisis that is happening at its borders.

The voice of Germany that wants to change the rules of the European immigration policy, seems finally a good start for changing direction. Let's hope that there won't be just words, but also facts.

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