What about the US Elections?

After months of electoral campaign, we are now very close to know who will be the 45th President of United States.

I didn't follow so much the campaign, but there are always some interesting sparks for a discussion.

First, the participation to the vote is always around 50 - 55%: it means 120 - 130 million people out of 240. If we consider that half of the electorate votes for the winner, around 60-70 million of people (18% of total population) decide the future of US. And US has a strong impact of the rest of the World (6 billion people).

Second, as far as we can consider US a democratic country, the competition to be President takes always place between rich families and their generations. Clinton, Bush, Kennedy, Trump don't really represent the middle class. And also Obama, that anyway has represented a symbol of change especially for the Afro-American community, didn't come from a poor family and graduated at the Harward University. The competition is always restricted to the elite.

Third, if Trump will win we cannot really understand the consequences. Maybe nothing will change or maybe the opposite. But what I notice is that in this elections both candidates didn't convince fully. Trump is not supported by Republicans and Clinton seems missing something.

For sure Obama era is going to end soon, and unfortunately the huge hopes of 2009 were not fully realized.

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Movimento 5 Stelle and Podemos: two sides of a different coin

Tomorrow in Italy it will take place the second round of the municipality elections in many important cities. In particular, Turin and Rome could become the first big cities with a major of the Movimento 5 Stelle.

In Europe there is already a similar case, in Spain where Podemos already governs Madrid and Barcelona.

Even if it would be easy to compare those two experiences, actually Podemos and M5S are very different.

Podemos is the political expression of the Indignados movement. They first created a network of  mutual support and then part of the movement entered in the political arena. Still now, Podemos is linked to the territory and it has a more left orientation.

M5S has a more top-down structure, where the leader Beppe Grillo plays a key role in all the main political decisions. Moreover, the political view is more ambiguous, touching issues of protest, and some typical perspective from the left and from the right at the same time.

Both Podemos and M5S did probably a mistake at the national level. They decided not to form a government when they could, as they didn't want to negotiate with other political forces. For the Madrid and Barcelona cases, Podemos had to do that, with good results.

We will see what it will happen in Turin and Rome, but for sure a huge change is coming in Italy and we cannot predict the consequences neither locally neither at the national level.

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Brexit: a Union based on the fear?

In few days we will know what British people want. If they see their future still in the European Union or not.

Media highlight every day the negative consequences of a Brexit. UK economy could be high impacted by this decision, with decrease of wealth, moving of major corporations to the "Continent" and loss of occupation. On the other side, a Eu without UK would be weaker and less balanced.

Every time there is a fact or event that can touch the basis of the European Union, the debate is always focused on the fear to lose something. It was like that for Greece, for the raise of Marie Le Pen in France, recently for Austria, and now for Brexit.

These local crisis can have huge impacts at the European level, but we don't know or we don't want to discuss about the reasons we need to stay in Eu.

We cannot simply justify Europe with economy.

The ruling class is not able to listen the symptoms of a deep disease that affects Europe. Those come from the raising of borders, the will to leave the Union, the win of xenophobic and eurosceptical parties all over the Continent.

European Union is dying and the most dramatic thing is that she tries to survive just on the fear and not with the idea to build a better place to live.

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Is Austria another problem for Europe?

Norbert Hofer has won the first turn of the Presidential Elections in Austria. He is the leader of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) and the direct successor of Jörg Haider, died in 2008.

FPO is an anti-European and xenophobic party, strong opponent of Brussels and of the European policies for the refugees.

If Hofer wins the second turn (22nd May), Austria will become another problem for Europe, after Poland and Hungary. 

There are two elements to highlight in this election.

First, once again, electorate is more oriented to vote for not-traditional parties.

The Socialist and the Popular party, that lead Austria since the II world war, got 11% of the votes. There is a need of change that unbelievably the traditional parties are not able to issue. It is the same situation in many countries also bigger as Italy and Spain. Changing the leadership and the structure of those parties, could be the first step for the change of the political scenario.

Second, Europe is probably crossing the worst phaseo of her recent history. 

It is clear that the situation has it is now, it is destined to blow up.

Over all, the shortsightedness of the European leadership is disarming, as usual.

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Is Finland the new sick man of Europe?

In the last quarter, as indicated by Eurostat, all the European Countries have seen increasing their GDP except four: Portugal (0%), Estonia (-0.5%), Greece (-0,5%) and Finland (-0.6%).

The case of Finland, in particular, is worrying and needs to be highlighted.

Helsinki is crossing the worst economic crisis since many years and the outlook for the future is not encouraging. The Minister of Finance himself has defined Finland as "the new sick man of Europe".

There are three main causes of this situation: the crisis of the most important Finnish company, Nokia; the economic weakness of Russia (main importer of Finnish goods) and the high cost of labor.

The ageing population and the difficulties to make labor reforms don't allow to expect a better situation in the imminent future.

Two considerations about Finland.

First, the case of Finland is another sign of a general problem in Europe. Everybody has to follow rigid economic policies that don't consider the differences between one Country and another. But at the same time, nobody can depreciate the value of the currency. The result is a paralysis that can be solved or with a European economic policy or breaking Euro. 

Second, Finland had a strong position against a common policy for the refugees. Another contradiction in Europe: support from Brussels is very welcome, but solidarity is not contemplated.

It is Europe herself to be sick.

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Which kind of Europe can fight against the terrorism?

Terrorism highlighted once again the contradiction of Europe.

From one side, it seems clear that without a central body for the European Security and Intelligence, it will be difficult to fight against terrorism. From the other, the Member States have not the real will to give power to a European subject and lose their full sovereignty.

It is always the same problem. We want a stronger Europe, a strong political subject in the World, but we don't really want a Europe so strong to cloud Uk, Germany, France and the others.

We need to face a form of terrorism that is endogenous, as the terrorist were born in Europe. At the same time this phenomenon has an international dimension and a global action.

Can we really think to face it with just a cooperation among the Countries? Or is it urgent to do a step forward in the direction of the European Integration?

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Pis & Love

Once again terrorism attacked the heart of Europe.

And once again public opinion is touched by the will to find and then fight the enemy and the astonishment for something maybe expected, but not really understandable.

There is something we need to highlight.

First, this is not a war, but pure terrorism. And many countries had long experience to fight against it: Eta in Spain, Brigate Rosse in Italy, Ira in Ireland,...

We need to accept that this is an endogenous phenomenon. It is organized and implemented by people that live with us, that were born in our Europe, that are part of us. They are not part of a foreign State.

Second, just 10 days ago there was a similar attack in Ankara with similar consequences that today attack in Brussels: 34 persons died and more than 100 injured. Unfortunately, we are touched by the images of the media and by our personal experience and perception. Never mind if Ankara is a European Capital. We can easily identify ourselves in a normal Bruxellois who is going to work and take the metro, much more difficult to see ourselves in Ankara or in Damascus, where attacks like we have seen today happen all the time.

It is like that unfortunately.

We need to think what to do and then do it. But not as single States, but as Europe.

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