Monarchy or Republic?

The flag of the Kingdom of Spain

Few days ago, King Juan Carlos of Spain, has announced his unexpected abdication.

In Spain this decision has fired up a wide debate about the opportunity to move to a Republican State, especially in a such a difficult moment for the Country, deeply touched by the economic crisis (the unemployment rate is the worst in Europe at 25%, 54% for young people).

But how much do Monarchies cost in Europe?

A reaserch of Prof. Herman Matthjis from the University of Ghent has analyzed the costs of the Royal Families. The most expensive Monarchy is Norway: 42 million euro per year, followed by The Netherlands and UK (38 million), Sweden (15), Belgium and Denmark (13), finally Spain (8). If we consider cost per capita, Spanish pay just 0,17 euro to the King, instead of 1 euro for Belgians and 5 euros for Norwegians.

Republican countries spend much more for their Head of State. The President of France has a budget of 112 million euro each year, but he has also other functions, not just representative. The President of the Italian Republic costs the record amount of 228 million euro. At the opposite pole, the President of Germany has "just" 20 million euro.

Monarchies in the World (in red)

If we evaluate just the costs, Monarchy seems quite better than Republic. But there is a strong main argument against Monarchy: the fact that someone, just because son or daughter of the King/Queen, can become King/Queen him/herself, represents a violation of the most important principle of democracy, the equality between the citizens of a State.

Anyway, arguments in favor of Monarchy or Republic are various. More than the institutions, we should evaluate each person at the head of a State. In some cases Kings have been important as guarantee of democracy and unity of a Country, such as Juan Carlos after the Franco dictatorship, or Albert II against the secessionist forces that crossed Belgium in the last years. In others, like in Italy during the fascism, Monarchy didn't support democracy and didn't contribute to the stability of the Country (in fact Italians voted for Republic in a referendum in 1946).

In conclusion, it can be sharable to say that the reputation of Monarchy depends mainly by how Monarchs can use their power and by how much they respect their people.

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Can the Italian Democratic Party be a new model for European Socialists?

The last European Elections has largely confirmed the previsions: Eurosceptics have got many votes and the abstaining has touched another record.

The only surprise of these Elections has been Italy. The Democratic Party (Partito Democratico PD), leaded by Matteo Renzi, has won the European Elections 2014 with the 40% of votes, +13% in comparison with the result of the National Political Election in 2013. This is the best result ever got by the PD since it was born in 2007.

The victory has two main causes. First, the other competitors have done mistakes in the electoral campaign (the case of Movimento 5 Stelle) or have had a too weak leadership (the case of Berlusconi's Party Forza Italia).

Second and most important element to comprehend this victory is the charismatic figure of Matteo Renzi. The former Major of Florence has conquered PD in December 2013, becoming Party Secretary. In a couple of months, following the contrasts with the Former Prime Minister Enrico Letta (PD member himself), Renzi finally became Head of the Government.

Renzi's political view followed two main guidelines: from one hand, he proposed the turnover of the political leadership and a strong reduction of the costs of politics. From the other, he never put in discussion the participation of Italy in the European Union and the respect of the Institutions. In this way, he could compete with other more populist political forces during the electoral campaign, but at the same time, he could keep an strong appeal to the more traditional part of the electorate.

Considering the advance of Eurosceptics in the last elections, can we consider PD as a new model for European social-democratic Parties, many of them in a huge crisis?

Of course, each Country is different. But two considerations can be done: first, the most part of Europeans are still favorable to Eu integration. On the long period, attacking the Union could become a boomerang. Second, changing of leadership should be probably one of the most important topic to face by many Parties that lost the European elections. Nevertheless, changes must be also substantial.

Finally, it is possible that this time Italy will be able to show a positive example for European Partners. We will see in the next months, especially during the Italian Eu Presidency Semester.

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Poland's last Communist Leader - The enigmatic figure of General W. Jaruzelski

General Wojciech Jaruzelski has died today, 25th May 2014.

He has definitively been a central figure in the recent Polish history, especially in the transition to democracy.

It is difficult to judge the life of Jaruzelski, considering his political and military decisions in the decades between 60s and 80s.

He started his military career very early and in 1945, when he was just 22, he participated in military takeover of Warsaw and in the battle of Berlin, being part of the Polish Army. After joining Communist Party, he developed his career quickly, becoming Minister of Defense in 1968. As Minister, he ordered to occupy Czechoslovakia in August 1968. Moreover, he constantly opposed a strong repression of Polish striking workers. 

Probably the darkest period of Jaruzelski's career was during the proclamation of martial law in 1981, few months later becoming Prime Minister. The aim of the martial law was to suppress Solidarnosc, but Jaruzelski has often justified his decision in order to avoid the invasion from Soviet troops in Poland, a country that was becoming dangerous for the stability of the Soviet area. Anyway an hypothetic Soviet plan to invade Poland has never been discosed.

Jaruzelski has played a central role in the transition to democracy of Poland.  Thanks to the new political view of Gorbaciev, in 1989 negotiations were held in the famous roundtable talks with democratic forces. The agreements resulted completely changed Polish political system, with the recognition of Solidarnosc as legal organization and with a new institutional structure.

Even if Jaruzelski was able to win the Presidential elections in 1989, without the support of Solidarnosc he decided to resign.

What to believe about his political life? Was he a completely negative figure in the Polish history, or he really facilitated the Polish transition to democracy?

Two facts are objective. First, Poland has never been invaded from Sovietic Army since the end of the II World War. Even if the role held by Jaruzelsky is not clear, Poland didn’t have a similar destiny as Hungary and Czechoslovakia.

Secondly, the end of Communism in Poland was peaceful and without any division. Even if Solidarnosc was a strong movement and also Vatican was an important actor, also the Communist political leadership understood the situation and facilitated the transition.

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Waiting for EU Elections: the advance of Eurosceptical Parties

The European Elections 2014 are coming. Between the 22^nd and 25^th of May, the citizens of the 28 Eu States will have to choose the new 751 members of the European Parliament. It will be the 8^th Election of the Parliament and the first after the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.

Eu Parliament in Strasbourg

The contest of this Elections is well known. The Economic Crisis and especially the austerity held by Eu Institutions has strongly degreased the public approval of the European Leadership. For this reason, it seems very probable an affirmation of Eurosceptical Parties in many Countries.

The website Electio2014.eu gives updated projections about the electoral intentions of vote in Europe. In three Countries, France, Uk and Czeck Republic, the Eurosceptics could become the first political force, but the situation in other Nations has to be monitored too. Let's have an overview.

In France, Front National leaded by Marine Le Pen, is accredited by the 23% of votes, whilst the UMP and Parti Socialiste should reach the 21% and the 17% respectively. In Uk the Uk Indipendence Party (UKIP) could win the elections with the 31% of votes, against the Labour  (28%) and the Conservatives (22%).

Moreover, also in Italy there is an important Eurosceptical force that could reach a great result in the next elections, the Movimento Cinque Stelle. This Party has got the 25% of votes (third political force) in the 2013 national elections and this time could reach the 24%, becoming the second force after the Partito Democratico.

In Eastern Europe, it must be pointed out the situation in Czech Republic and Hungary. In the first Country, another Eurosceptical Party could win, the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, with the 24% of votes. In Hungary, after the impressive victory of the conservative forces at the last national elections of April 2014 (NotonlyEurope - Hungarian Elections 2014), there could be another affirmation of Fidesz and Jobbik: they could get together the 65% of the votes.

Special attention should also be given to Greece. SYRIZA, the Coalition of the Radical Left, could become the first political force with the 27% of votes, overtaking the Prime Minister Party Nea Democratia, attested at 25%.

A question can be finally posed: could be a real drama the victory of this Eurosceptical Parties in many Countries?

Two points should be consider to answer: first, the two major forces will be again the Party of European Socialists and the European People's Party. They will compete for the designation of the President of the Eu Commission and will play a central role in the next European  Legislature.

Second, the advance of Euroscepticism could represent an opportunity for a deep reflection about the European Union: why we are part of this Entity, what we have created in the last 60 years and what we can achieve in the future. Maybe this time, the debates should be less rhetorical and more realistic. European citizens have the right to know better what European Union is, considering not only the costs, but also the advantages.

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Waiting for Eu Elections: why has Euro been adopted?

Euro, the official currency of 18 members of European Union, is constantly at the center of the public debate since it has been adopted the 1st January 2002.

Especially in the last years, a large part of the public opinion has pointed Euro as the source of all the problems and weaknesses of the European economy.The question at the base of every discussion about Euro is apparently very simple: is Euro an advantage or a load for European Countries? 

Everyone can answer to this question in a very different way and from different points of view. But there is another question, important as well, not everybody can answer to: why has Euro been adopted?

On the website of the European Commission some benefits of a common currency are reported:

More choice and stable prices for consumers and citizens

Greater security and more opportunities for businesses and markets

Improved economic stability and growth

More integrated financial markets

A stronger presence for the EU in the global economy

A tangible sign of a European identity

Moreover, from a technical point of view, at the end of 80s it was clear that building a European single market without a common currency was absolutely impossible. 

History provides the evidence of that. For example, till the unification in 1870, Italy was divided in several small Countries, each one with its own currency. Only after the unification, under a unique currency, the economic integration has been able to grow up. And could we imagine the same economic power of USA, if there were 50 different currencies?

Obviously Eu economic governance doesn’t work well. It is evident to everyone. But it is also true that National Governments very often transfer their responsibilities on Euro, hiding their faults and their weaknesses.

Finally, today travelling from Warsaw to Budapest requires using four different currencies and imply losing money for each transaction. Can we really imagine to crystallize this situation also in the future?

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Hungarian Elections: which potential scenarios after the Fidesz victory?

At the national elections of the 6^th of April Hungary has confirmed Fidesz - the Hungarian Civic Alliance Party - and its leader and prime minister Viktor Orbán as main political force.

The result has not been a surprise, Fidesz has got the 44% of votes. Even if it has lost 600 thousands of votes in comparison with the elections of 2010, Orbán party will get 133 seats out of 199 total of the Parliament, thanks to the new and contested electoral law wanted by Fidesz itself.  It is alarming the growth of the xenophobic party Jobbik, that has got the 21,4% of votes, third force of the new Parliament of Budapest, just behind the center-left with the 25% of votes.

Hungarian Parliament in Budapest

Orbán is a really enigmatic figure in Hungary. He is considered populist, authoritarian and eurosceptic, but he growth up in a anti-communist and liberal movement. During his first premiership (1998 – 2002), Orbán started important liberalizations in Hungary, with good results in economy (drop of inflation and growth of GDP).

In the last four years, instead, he got modest economical results.  Moreover, he has been strongly contested for a series of authoritarian laws, with limitation of media freedom, a general homophobic attitude and the occupation of important key roles in some guarantee authorities by people close the Prime Minister.

What can happen now? It is hard to say.

Viktor Orbán has been able to win because of his ability to foster the fear of Hungarians towards the crisis and towards Europe.

The European elections are imminent: it seems that the eurosceptic forces will take advantage from the general anti-Eu feeling present in several Countries. 

Orbán can take two directions. The first is following the xenophobic and anti-european issues: the risk is giving more space to forces like Jobbik and, at the same time, going away from the European Union. The second is to realign himself and his Government closer to the positions of Brussels, that could be an important support against the populist and xenophobic drift as in Hungary as in other Countries.  We will see soon. 

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Behind the F1 Gp of Bahrain: a Country in revolt

The 10^th edition of the F1 Gran Prix of Bahrain has ended few hours ago. The media attention has been focused on the sportive event, that generates millions of dollars each year. But the internal situation of the Country has been completely clouded.

The race was cancelled only in 2011, when the revolts of the population began. But in the last years the Bahrain International Circuit seemed like a happy island, far from the divisions present in the Country.

But what is the current situation in Bahrain?

First of all, it’s is important to keep in mind few data about the Kingdom of Bahrain. It is a small archipelago in the Persian Gulf with a population of 1.300.000 habitants and a GDP per capita of around 28600 $, 34^th in the International Monetary Fund classification of the richest Countries in the world.

Bahrain was part of the British colonialist empire till 1971, when it reached the independence. Now it is under the kingdom of Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa, last exponent of the Sunni family of al-Khalifa, linked to the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia.

The conflicts began in 2011 after the Arab Spring. The origin of the revolt is religious. In fact, even if the 70% of the population is Shiite, King Hamad and the ruling class of the Country is Sunni. Shiites, that don’t have access to the highest positions in the State, ask the transformation of Bahrain in a Constitutional Monarchy, with the possibility of electing a democratic Parliament and with the recognition of their rights.  

The revolt didn’t stop since four years and the reaction has been reflected in  tortures, rapes and deaths. The Monarchy has the support of US that want to maintain a strong relation with this strategic Country, situated between the Shiite Iran and the Sunni Saudi Arabia.  it is not a coincidence that Bahrain hosts the V fleet of the US Navy.

Finally, can geopolitical and economical interests hide social conflicts? Apparently yes. Therefore, “The show must goes on”. But till when? 

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